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Modeling tropical cyclone intensity to include climate effects

Speaker: Emmi Yonekura, Postdoctoral Research Associate
Series: EEWR Brown Bag Seminars
Location: Engineering Quad E225
Date/Time: Friday, October 11, 2013, 12:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m.

Abstract:

We construct new statistical models for tropical cyclone intensity evolving with the environment. Our initial model is based on statistical operational forecast models (SHIPS and STIPS) in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. Other models are constructed using advanced statistical techniques to select the most important variables and determine any non-linear relationships between intensity and the environment. In all models, the two intensity variables—the maximum sustained wind and minimum central pressure—are modeled jointly. These models may be incorporated into statistical tropical cyclone track models for risk assessments under climate change.