Summary - Final Report
Taking the Measure of Culture:
A Meeting at Princeton University, June 7– June 8, 2002
Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and hosted by the
Princeton University Center for Arts and Cultural Policy Studies
PARTICIPANTS:
| Kelly Barsdate |
Heidi Rettig |
| Tom Bradshaw |
Gabriel Rossman |
| Arthur Brooks |
Bruce Seaman |
| Michael Danielson |
Joan Shigekawa |
| Paul DiMaggio |
Mario Small |
| Jeffrey Edelstein |
Jeff Smith |
| Claude Fischer |
Mark Stern |
| Marian Godfrey |
Liz Strom |
| Henry Horn |
Ann Swidler |
| Maria Rosario Jackson |
Steven Tepper |
| Stanley Katz |
Bruce Western |
| Ruby Lee |
Cathy Wichterman |
Randy Mason |
Blair Wheaton |
| Larry McGill |
Ellen Winner |
| Jesse Mintz-Roth |
Margaret Wyszomirski |
| Michael Moore |
|
Day 1 (Friday, June 7) Introduction
Paul DiMaggio opened the conference with several broad questions
regarding the relationship between the arts and community life.
He noted that we can think about the relationship in terms of
what accounts for the health of artistic communities in geographically
defined areas (e.g., what makes an arts community healthy for
creativity, diversity, and innovation). Or, we can examine the
impacts that artists, arts activities, and arts institutions have
on their communities. Drawing on Josh Guetzkow’s paper,
How the Arts Impact Communities: An introduction to the literature
on arts impact studies, prepared for this conference, DiMaggio
pointed out that any attempt to measure the “effects”
of the arts on communities requires a careful and precise definition
of both terms (“art” and “community”).
Second, it is difficult to isolate the effects of the arts in
a complex system (e.g. a community). Different types of art activities
or organizations might have distinct effects on different citizens.
Given this heterogeneity, it is unrealistic to expect large effects
on most community-level outcomes from arts-related (or any other
specialized) interventions. How do we study the impact of the
arts when effects might be non-linear and complex, challenging
many of the assumptions that underlie typical models used in the
social sciences to measure cause and effect relationships?
Session 1: Mature Research Fields in the Arts: Economic
Impact and Schooling Effects
In the first session, Ellen Winner presented
her research on the relation between arts education and non-arts,
academic performance. Despite the many claims that the arts increase
children’s verbal and math test scores and their self-esteem,
few studies have actually demonstrated a causal relationship.
The Reviewing Education and the Arts Project (REAP), directed
by Ellen Winner and Lois Hetland, carried out met-analyses of
more than one hundred studies that examined the link between arts
and academics. They found a strong correlation: students who elect
to take arts courses in school or after school get better grades
and higher scores on standardized tests than those who do not
involve themselves in the arts. However, no studies showed that
studying the arts is the actual cause of increased academic
performance. Winner noted that the correlation between the arts
and academic skills might reflect the fact that high achieving
students in the US choose to participate in the arts. They might
do this because of family values, or even to gain a competitive
advantage in college admissions. In the U.K., students who took
many arts courses actually performed worse on national exams than
those who focused only on academic courses. One possible explanation
is that in the U.K., academically weak students are guided into
the arts, while strong ones are advised to focus on academics.
Thus, context is important and selection effects may explain the
positive correlations in the US between arts study and academic
performance. The only causal links that Winner and Hetland’s
meta-analyses uncovered were between music listening (in adults)
and spatial test scores (an effect that lasts only minutes), music
performance and spatial test scores (an effect that is not short-lived),
and classroom drama and verbal skills.
Professor Winner concluded that claims about the impact of arts
education are problematic. First, researchers who attempt to demonstrate
the transfer of arts learning to other domains (science, math,
reading) need to clearly explain the process by which this happens.
And, they must be able to measure the relevant arts learning in
the first place. For example, certain types of art education might
help students develop a capacity for “close observation”
that could transfer to science; or they might learn perseverance;
or discipline; or use the arts as an entry point into other subjects.
But, these outcomes must be measured explicitly; control group
and comparison cases must be selected carefully; and teachers
must be prepared to teach explicitly with the desired transfer
in mind (it most likely will not happen accidentally). Finally,
Winner felt that arts advocates should not rely as heavily as
they do on utilitarian arguments, but rather should endorse arts
education for its own sake. Rarely, if ever, has research demonstrated
that learning in any subject matter transfers to learning in any
other. We should not require more of the arts than we do of other
subjects.
In the session’s second presentation, Bruce Seaman
offered a critique of economic impact studies. While economists
have recently become more sophisticated about measuring the impact
of spending, in the past typical measurement errors in impact
studies included: spending diversion errors (the failure to exclude
spending by local residents who would have spent their money locally
even had they not spent it on the arts); ancillary spending errors
(erroneous attribution of all hotel, restaurant, or retail spending
by non-local arts consumers, many of whom may have come to town
for other reasons); and use of unrealistically high “multipliers”
to estimate aggregate effects of arts spending. Seaman also reported
some additional lessons from existing research on the economic
impact of sports. In particular, he noted the supply constraint,
or crowding-out error – sporting events often compete with
other planned events for the same fixed resources (hotel, restaurants,
taxis) – leading to a substitution of spending, rather than
additional spending. (For example, Atlanta pulled out of two bids
to host the Superbowl because the hotels were already full.) Similarly,
World Cup hosting countries tend to lose money because World Cup
activities substitute for other economic activities. He also noted
the ex-post verification error where unforeseen events may change
previously reported impact assessments (e.g., when sports teams
leave or go on strike, for example, they have no economic impact).
Finally, economic impact studies must contend with the problem
of aggregation – i.e., spending that takes place in one
city might pull spending away from its neighbor. From the standpoint
of the first city, this is good, but from the standpoint of state
or regional or national policy, there is no benefit. By focusing
on an inter-regional impact analysis, the intra-regional component
is missed.
Seaman reported that the total economic impact of arts events
and organizations should be calculated by taking the sum of consumption
benefits to users and non users (e.g., those local citizens who
do not attend, but who still value the existence of the event/institution),
long run economic growth benefits, and short run spending impact.
Economic impact studies, by design, rule out consumption benefits,
and neglect long term growth, focusing almost exclusively instead
on short run spending. Seaman suggested that contingent valuation
was one method that could capture some of the local consumption
benefits. This method relies on a survey of what residents would
pay to expand, create or sustain existing cultural facilities
(or natural resources). Contingent valuation methods are controversial,
however, because of biases that are built into the approach. An
example of this is “anchoring bias,” whereby respondents
report being unwilling to pay much more than what they are told
is currently spent on the arts. When the anchor (i.e., what is
reported as current expenditures) changes, respondents’
willingness to pay changes as well. In a few cases, researchers
have tried to use both traditional economic impact studies and
contingent valuation methods and have come up with two different
sets of values. But the relationship between these two figures
is poorly understood.
Can we say anything positive about economic impact studies? Seaman
made the point that while typical economic impact studies might
exaggerate spending impacts (because of many of the errors described
above) they also fail to capture local consumption benefits and
long term growth. Therefore, it is quite possible that their conclusions
actually approximate the true economic impact (even as they draw
their conclusions from flawed methods) because the biases tend
to even one another out.
Discussion: Following the presentations, participants
raised questions about how to measure what children are actually
learning through participation in the arts. There was discussion
about the need to focus on outcomes or skills that can be traced
more directly to such participation – discipline, motivation,
study habits, team work, presentation skills – rather than
the impact of the arts on other academic subjects (math, science,
reading). Arts educators should focus on these outcomes and the
intrinsic benefits of arts learning, rather than just spill-over
effects in different subjects. It was also suggested that researchers
distinguish effects for different types of students, and that
they be more explicit about both the precise learning environment
or activity involved, and the nature of the effects that supposedly
result from that activity.
Regarding economic impact studies, participants raised the concern
that such studies fail to measure intangible impacts, like enhancing
city and regional reputation or improving the quality of life
-- factors which may, for example help determine where firms move
their headquarters or where knowledge workers want to live. Another
participant recognized that in complex urban-political systems
(which most cities are), economic impact studies probably play
only a minor role in influencing decisions about public investments
Session 2: Research on Communities
Mario Small presented ethnographic research on the Jorge Hernandez
Cultural Center in the predominantly Puerto Rican Villa Victoria
housing project in the South End of Boston. The Center was founded
in 1986 in an old church with two primary objectives: 1) to generate
income and 2) to use culture as a means to celebrate Puerto Rican
heritage and to create social ties between the neighborhood's
Puerto Rican residents and non-residents from the surrounding
areas. The Center pursued these goals by hosting social events
and concerts highlighting Latino art and culture. Its programming
attracted well known artists, large crowds, and ticket revenue
for the cultural center and housing project. However, no cross-cultural
social capital – what Robert Putnam has called “bridging”
capital -- was created because the residents of Villa Victoria
almost never attended the Center’s events. In addition to
high ticket prices, Small argued that most residents did not participate
because the programming did not appeal to them. The Center sponsored
concerts and dance events that appealed to New Englanders’
ideas of “Latino music”—Cuban Salsa, Chicano
Rock, Flamenco, Tango, Latin Jazz. However, this Pan-Latin American
repertoire is very different from the music styles that Villa
Victorianos know and enjoy, such as Trova, Puerto Rican guitar
trios, Spanish Reggae (Reggaeton), Jibaro and Spanish Hip Hop.
One lesson from Small’s work is that ethnographic research
in a community can help reveal the barriers to certain programmatic
objectives – in this case the use of music and culture to
build social capital. In the case described above, Small found
that differing cultural perceptions and musical tastes prevented
the Jorge Hernandez Cultural Center from creating the types of
social bonds that the program was intended to foster in the first
place, even as the programs increased the Center’s visibility
and provided a useful source of revenue.
Claude Fischer, author of America Calling,
a social history of the telephone, discussed the social consequences
of technology as a cognate example for thinking about the social
consequences of art and culture. First, he suggested that “consequences”
was a better description than “impact” because the
latter term suggests a “billiard ball” model of cause
and effect – an external force (technology or the arts)
supposedly “strikes” existing attitudes, social relations
and institutions and causes them to move in new directions. In
contrast, “consequences: suggests that there can be multiple
forces at work (internal and external) on a variety of individuals
and institutions, resulting in numerous unexpected, overlapping
and often contradictory outcomes. Also, the introduction of new
technology (or art and culture) can create not only new opportunities
for citizens, but also new constraints. For example, the introduction
of the car permitted a growing population of workers to buy affordable
housing in the suburbs and commute to the city. But, its popularity
also became a constraint because it became hard to live a middle
class life without an automobile. And not all new technology pushes
social life in the same direction. For example, when movies were
introduced on a mass scale they became social destinations and
brought more people to downtowns – by contrast, the introduction
of streetcars helped cities spread out in a radial fashion. Sometimes
the introduction of a new technology might not alter social life,
but instead accentuate or facilitate existing patterns of behavior.
For example, many people assumed that the telephone would increase
communications between people or alter social relationships. Instead,
it changed the efficiency of communication (i.e., it let people
who regularly communicate do so more easily and it allowed people
to move farther from one another and still maintain regular correspondence).
In this case, the telephone had an unanticipated consequence on
localism. Fischer concluded that to gauge accurately the consequences
of any intervention (technology or the arts), one needs research
over a long enough period to capture multiple, heterogeneous consequences.
It is also important to have strong comparison cases. For example,
Fischer’s own research compared the different consequences
of the telephone and automobile.
Discussion: Participants acknowledged the importance
of conceptual precision in attempting to measure the consequences
of art and culture for community life. For example, when people
talk about the impact of the arts on social capital, the terms
art and social capital are typically defined too broadly (or not
defined at all). Some arts activities (like a community theatre
project) might lead to bridging social capital (more ties between
different groups of people); others (like a weaving club) might
lead to bonding social capital (stronger ties within existing
groups). Similarly, participating as an audience member (one type
of art experience), might have very different consequences than
participating in an event that requires back-and-forth engagement
(a different type of experience all together). Some arts activities
are primarily about self-expression; others about promoting community
interests. These two types are unlikely to have similar consequences.
One person pointed out that Small’s work in the Villa Victoria
housing project demonstrated that policy (and research) often
focuses too much on form rather than content of artistic programs.
In this case, creating a venue for dance and music (a successful
concert series) was the desired outcome for the project. However,
by ignoring how the “content” of the program (Pan
Latin music and dance) corresponded to the lives and interests
of residents, policy makers failed to recognize that building
“social capital” (a stated goal of the series) was
not possible unless the content could effectively engage both
residents of Villa Victoria and surrounding New Englanders.
Finally, there was a recognition that Fischer’s work on
the social consequences of technology provided important lessons
for micro-economic theory. In particular, micro-economic theory
assumes that people’s preferences for consuming art, media
and other goods and services are fairly stable. However, as Fischer
has demonstrated, as social environments change (e.g., with the
introduction of new technology), preference might change in unexpected
ways. We need better theories and empirical research about how
individual preferences come into being in the first place and
how these preference adapt to changing economic and social conditions.
Session 3: Perspective from the Natural Sciences
Henry Horn discussed different approaches to
thinking about biological diversity. First, how do we determine
the optimal or minimal level of diversity for any given community?
For example, what is the minimal number of different kinds of
species that are necessary for a viable ecosystem (a similar question
could be asked about cultural diversity). Horn pointed out that
any measure of diversity will greatly depend on scale –
are you looking at one square acre or one thousand square acres?
What is the appropriate scale for examining diversity? Levels
of diversity or heterogeneity plotted against one scale might
be entirely different when examined at a different scale. It is
also important to look not only at diversity in terms of overall
numbers of different species, but also in terms of patterns and
distributions. That is, what are the relationships between different
species in any given area? What do the patterns look like?
Horn suggested that discrete biological patterns might result
from certain self-organizing principles or be the outcome of an
historical process of growth and development. Some patterns are
simply historical accidents. And, certain processes might be really
good at creating new patterns, and really bad at erasing existing
patterns. The point is that certain biological arrangements might
be very difficult to undo (again, analogous processes might be
at work in cultural ecosystems).
Horn also raised a series of questions about the underlying motivation
and justifications for wanting to conserve or foster biological
diversity. Is it to protect aesthetic novelties? Irreplaceable
species? Is it to protect the functioning of an ecological system
(utilitarian claims similar to those made on behalf of the arts)?
Is conservation a moral debt to the past or future? And, assuming
that you can arrive at a consensus about the importance of biodiversity,
how do you actually measure diversity? Do you count the number
of different species? Or, do you count categories of species?
Do you measure diversity by function (not by the intrinsic qualities
of a species, but by the function it performs in a larger system).
How do you count? Is rarity a plus or minus? Or in other words,
do we want a community with high numbers of relatively rare species
(high variance)? Or is it better to have more robust populations
of fewer species (lower variance)? How do you assign weights or
prioritize (which species should be more abundant and which less)?
Finally, the more details we can collect about the unique characteristics
of entities in an ecosystem, the richer are the analytical possibilities.
However, too much information can lead to data narcosis –
making it difficult to find any sensible patterns or to process
the information in meaningful ways. So, there are tradeoffs in
measuring and describing diverse ecosystems – and many meaningful
distinctions might be lost in an effort to gain analytical efficiency.
The discussion began with a comparison between
environmental conservation and biodiversity and cultural heritage
and cultural diversity. Research in the latter area has been focused
on techniques of preservation and conservation and has neglected
the social consequences of maintaining heritage sites, buildings
and practices. And, unlike environmental conservation, the preservation
field has not developed methods or theories to measure diversity
or to trace the interrelationships between sites and structures
or to study the community-level characteristics of places that
have a rich, well preserved cultural heritage. How do different
part of the cultural system interact? How many types of artists
or organizations do you need to have a viable community? What
is the maximum or ideal number that can co-exist in any one space?
What is the role of competition between art forms and institutions
for audiences and resources? (note: sociologists have borrowed
ecological models to study competition between organizations).
It was noted that humans have the capacity to purposefully cooperate
to improve the cultural system. Perhaps heterogeneity and diversity
of cultural content would be enhanced in a environment of cartel-like
cooperation.
There is general agreement that biodiversity is a good thing,
but there is still no consensus on whether cultural diversity
is equally important. Perhaps we need to develop a set of agreed-upon
indicators of “cultural diversity” (or heterogeneity);
and then communities could evaluate whether they meet certain
baseline levels and whether the cultural life of a community is
getting more or less diverse over time. And, policy makers could
better evaluate whether interventions lead to more or less diversity.
Perhaps arts researchers can learn from the natural sciences in
developing approaches to measuring diversity. Do we look at diversity
of form (music, dance, theatre, craft) ? Genre? Diversity of function
(participatory arts, community arts, arts schools, museums, etc.)?
Institutional and organizational diversity (age, size, location)?
And at what scale should we look for diversity, given the fact
that what appears to be diverse at one level (e.g., a city) may
mask much homogeneity at more local levels of analysis (for example,
neighborhoods within that city).
Drawing on the ecological case, the question was raised as to
whether “new growth” is more likely in a diverse ecosystem.
Similarly, perhaps “innovation” or new cultural forms
are more likely to emerge in a diverse and heterogeneous cultural
milieu than in less diverse places. And perhaps latent interests
in the arts might be more likely to become manifest in environments
where there are more different stimuli and cultural options available.
The discussion highlighted the fact that in systems that have
tight interdependency among system elements, those elements will
interact in ways that yield nonlinear relationships between inputs
and outputs. Perhaps under some conditions, conventional ways
of talking about and measuring causality become inoperative. Biologists
have not yet developed useful methods for analyzing communities
with high numbers of species each of which influences the vital
rates (births, deaths, and so on) of every other. In so far as
human communities are complex systems characterized by nonlinear
relationships among complexly interacting components, how can
one develop deliberate and meaningful interventions? Are there
lessons from environmental science and policy that inform how
one can assess interventions? What can cultural policy learn from
the natural sciences in this respect? The upside of nonlinear
effects is an adaptive landscape. If you are in a valley, a ridge
may not be far away. A small push in the right direction can have
a very large effect. Also, it was noted that many non-linearities
follow an S-curve – where exposure to some intervention
of interest (e.g., arts participation) will have no effect at
first; then, at a point of inflection, one observes a narrow range
of significant effect, followed by an asymptotic leveling of effect
at higher levels. Researchers need to do a better job of identifying
the inflection point, because this is where small interventions
can have the greatest impact.
First Day Recap
The recap began with a discussion of the challenges that funders
face in trying to support research or influence social outcomes.
Funders are generalists and pragmatists and typically in a hurry.
This raises several questions. First, given the richness of the
conversation so far and the daunting research tasks ahead, how
much information and research is needed before making a decision?
Second, one major conclusion from the meeting thus far is that
because the cultural system is so complex, it is important to
disaggregate vague categories or definitions and achieve much
greater levels of specificity. However, when will we know when
we have reached a level of specificity we can trust to make decisions,
and will we have the patience to get there? Regarding scale, how
far will we have to back up to see the picture? Third, how much
should we be trying to influence taste preferences and behaviors?
Should we even try to engineer cultural systems?
Others mentioned that, for both methodological and operational
purposes, we need more clarity and precision about both the inputs
(for example, types of artistic practice or institution) and the
outputs (the specific community or individual level impact) in
which we are interested. . One important step would be to identify
a common outcome that the funding, policy and arts research communities
agreed is important. Is there consensus around the importance
of measuring diversity and heterogeneity? What other outcomes?
Perhaps in education there is growing consensus around the importance
of measuring learning, rather than achievement (e.g., test scores).
The discussion has assumed that to understand “impact”
we need to identify causal linkages. Is there any role for studies
that show correlation and interdependence without demonstrating
causality?
There are at least three possible approaches to examining causal
relationships between arts activities and outcomes at the community
level. First, one can use linear models: researchers attempt to
extract five or six variables from a system and regress them on
some outcome of interest (e.g., examining the relationship between
spending on orchestral music over time and the number of new compositions
performed by symphony orchestras). Second is the systems approach
of which SimCity is the popular epitome, where one identifies
the key components of a system (artists, arts organizations, funders,
and so on) and tries to identify enough parameters linking parts
of the system to model the relationships between these parts.
Sometimes the SimCity approach is too limited, reducing the dynamics
of system to too few parameters. In such cases, a third approach
may be necessary – a complex systems model.
Finally, one participant pointed out that the field needs to
take into account who will undertake the type of complex analysis
described above? What are the incentives to encourage scholars
to do work in cultural policy and on the cultural sector more
generally? Does the tenure system support work in this field?
Day 2 (Saturday, June 8)
Session 4: Methodological Frontiers
In the first presentation, Blair Wheaton discussed
useful lessons for cultural-policy researchers from research on
stress and mental health. Early research on mental health (1950
to 1970) was poorly integrated. Advocates of many different theories
and schools of thought and different approaches to diagnosing
disorders tended to talk past one another. In the 1970s a decision
was made to standardize the different definitions of “psychiatric
disorder,” stating specific criteria for each.
Even though the early taxonomies were far from perfect, the very
process of standardization led to national surveys of mental disorders
(using agreed upon boundaries and concepts) and to an explosion
of research and findings about the distribution of mental health
among people and groups. One lesson is that reaching consensus
about cultural indicators might be necessary for certain types
of arts research to reach adequate scale and scope. Three other
general lessons for arts research include these:
- Social contexts have important and detectable effects on
individuals;
- Longitudinal research on the impact of the arts may be particularly
important for distinguishing between self-selection and causation;
and
- It is important to try to identify members of a population
who are particularly “vulnerable” to some intervention
or condition. In research on stress, we learn from the minority
of people who are relatively immune to stressors how to intervene
to help the majority of people who are more vulnerable. In arts
research, you might flip this around and learn from people who
are vulnerable to arts interventions how to help those who are
immune (generally unaffected or disconnected from the arts).
Research on stress has called attention to the importance of
both social and individual context. Wheaton demonstrated how measuring
only individual-level effects can have misleading results. He
also provided evidence that community-level factors can have a
strong influence on individual levels of health and well being.
For example, neighborhood wealth and community organization have
significant effects on birth weights, above and beyond the effects
of income, race or the marital status of the child’s mother
(individual effects). Or, the effects of income on depression
(typically lower incomes correspond to greater stress levels)
depend on the poverty level of a neighborhood. Poor people are
more depressed when living in poor neighborhoods then they are
when living in more wealthy communities. Hierarchical Linear Models
(HLM) can be used to distinguish the effects of a neighborhood
as distinct from the unique experiences and traits of individuals.
Not just social context, but individual context as well, has
important conditioning effects on the relationship between stressful
life events and mental-health outcomes. For example, the average
effects of divorce on mental health across all divorced persons
is weak. However, if you take into account the context of the
marriage before divorce, you find very strong effects. Specifically,
partners who experience their marriages as good suffer great distress
when they end; by contrast, when bad marriages end in divorce,
stress levels may actually be reduced.
It is also important to realize that contexts change over time,
and that past contexts may continue to exert an influence on present
day mental health. Using a technique known as cluster-based hierarchical
models, researchers have shown that for some adults, characteristics
of their childhood neighborhood might exert a greater influence
on their mental health then where they reside currently.
One possible research strategy would be to 1) use GIS geocodes
to create cultural indicators (context) at the neighborhood level;
2) collect national aggregate information over time (or look at
existing national data sets that have a dependent variable of
interest – crime, stress, civic participation, or so on;
and 3) link the two with geocodes and then estimate the effects.
Discussion: Wheaton’s talk demonstrates
that the simplest methodological approach often leads us to the
wrong explanation. For example, education levels of spouses might
predict the chances of divorce. But, looking at only that factor
in isolation may miss the mediating impact of social networks
or the background characteristics of marriages that lead to divorce.
Likewise, scholars who study arts participation have tended to
look exclusively at a few unchanging demographic characteristics
to explain participation – education, race, income, residency
– without studying the social or cultural context within
which participation (or non-participation) takes places. Such
research is also not very useful to funders and policy makers
who are looking for levers with which to intervene to increase
participation, because a foundation cannot change someone’s
demographic profile. Instead, scholars should examine demographics
not as a sole determinant of participation, but rather as a factor
that influences different responses to treatments or interventions.
So for example, higher income might generally predict higher levels
of participation. However, a more interesting finding would be
that people at certain levels of income respond differently to
different types of art education – for some types of arts
education, for example, low income participants might actually
respond more favorably than people at higher income levels.
Second, Wheaton’s talk points out that scholars and policy
makers should pay more attention to the “when” and
“where” of interventions. Again, context makes a difference.
Regarding arts participation, at what stage in a life course is
it most effective to intervene? What environment is most conducive
to different types of intervention – home, school, clubs,
individual-based learning, or group-oriented participation? Finally,
we should recognize that many of the relationships linking the
arts and culture to community-level and individual-level outcomes
are nonlinear. The challenge is to model that nonlinearity, taking
into account context and life course factors, and then find the
right time and the right place to intervene.
In the second presentation, Bruce Western, discussed
the advantages of using Bayesian analysis for studying community-level
outcomes. Modeling community-level effects can be complex (e.g.,
using hierarchical models) and often requires a great deal of
data to capture nonlinearities and the contextual effects. Complex
models can be very costly (both in terms of the data collection,
but also in terms of the simplicity of an argument or explanation).
Another way to analyze community-level effects is to do comparative
research across communities, cities, states or nations. Rather
than study individuals within communities, you can look at communities
themselves. However, such comparative analysis often suffers from
weak data (small samples, data that are not based on random samples,
multicollinearity, and so on) as well as weak theory (e.g., there
are typically many different possible explanations for an observed
outcome). Under such conditions researchers tend to try out different
models to see which fit the data best, a practice referred to
as data mining. Data mining can yield spurious relationships –
that is, observations of statistical relationships in the data
(i.e., one factor appears to predict or explain another) that
are the result of chance, rather than reflections of real causal
processes.
Bayesian analysis is particularly well suited for overcoming
these challenges and explaining variation across a limited number
of communities. The Bayesian approach has two implications: 1)
things that we often treat as certain can be made more uncertain
because we treat them probabilistically; and 2) uncertain things
can be made more certain because we can introduce information
from outside the sample (from contextual knowledge, historical
knowledge, or case study research) and have this reflected in
our results. In the first case, we essentially test different
models and determine a probability for each model that takes our
uncertainty into account. In the second case, scholars can include
a range of relevant information that is typically not captured
in normal quantitative models. Thus, Bayesian analysis can be
used to understand differences between a limited number of communities.
It is a powerful tool with small data sets because it provides
an opportunity to combine quantitative and qualitative information.
Discussion: In response to the presentation,
there was discussion about the role of qualitative research in
studying communities. Under what conditions is qualitative research
appropriate? And, how can qualitative and quantitative research
be integrated better? How can the two methods work side by side?
Second, a question was raised regarding the extent to which research,
generally, is policy relevant. For example, hierarchical models
may help us to learn that neighborhood poverty is associated with
low birth weights (or low arts participation); but then what role
can policy makers play in affecting change? Other than ending
neighborhood poverty, what other options are available for intervention?
Regarding the first issue, the group discussed many ways in which
qualitative research can be designed to gain maximum leverage
on understanding community-level outcomes. First, qualitative
research can be very effective when comparing a few cases (at
least 2), that are similar in almost every way but also differ
on a few important dimensions --- for example, countries that
share almost identical histories and economies, but have very
different political institutions. Qualitative case studies also
help reveal underlying mechanisms that explain the relationship
between some outcome and a community characteristic. Case studies
also can be very powerful for looking at unusual cases –
e.g., trying to understand a poor community that has an unusually
high investment in the arts. Additionally, if a quantitative model
reveals that there is an inflection point (or tipping point) at
which the probability of a certain outcome (e.g., experimenting
with a new art form) rises sharply, then qualitative case study
work may help reveal how to intervene most effectively at that
point.
With regard to effective policy intervention, it was suggested
that research must first reveal underlying, perhaps immutable,
conditions (e.g. the effect of poverty on arts participation)
in order to identify policy levers that might make a difference.
Three other challenges face policy makers. First, the issue of
latency is a problem: many impacts may not show up until 5 to10
years into the funding cycle. Second, it is crucial to understand
what statisticians call “suppressor effects” –
factors that lead to the ineffectiveness of an intervention that
would otherwise have yielded the desired effect on a community
or individual. Finally, policy makers must pay attention to “interaction
effects,” when certain interventions work differently on
different group of people.
Session 5: Robust Institutions and Communities
Ann Swidler gave the conference’s final presentation on
the general theme of robust and well functioning communities and
institutions. Her presentation focused on three topics: 1) How
would we recognize a healthy and robust community, and what contribution
might the arts make to such a community? 2) What types of cultural
or artistic “outcomes” might a researcher want to
measure at the community level? And, 3) What types of interventions
are possible?
First, Swidler laid out three things that robust institutions
should do: sustain individual, family, and group functions; create
leadership responsive to their members; and sustain movement toward
collective goals. Studies of Native American tribal communities
have revealed that these communities are robust when governance
institutions are aligned with the mythologies and narratives of
their citizens. Community members derive identity from rich cultural
narratives, which provide legitimacy for government and social
institutions and shape the norms within which community leaders
operate and serve the citizenry. Perhaps researchers should pay
more attention to how communities construct narratives –
through stories, photographs, buildings, songs, festivals –
and how these narratives render collective meaning and identity.
Second, Swidler discussed the role of art and culture in creating
or sustaining prestige systems. She cited work in the sociology
of culture that demonstrates that art institutions and art consumption
have served to mark and sustain boundaries between high and low
status persons. But, policy makers can also use the arts to democratize
existing prestige systems. As an example, when a curator says
that graffiti is beautiful and museum-worthy, he or she has added
legitimacy to a form of cultural expression and a subculture that
was not previously validated by the larger culture. Should policy
makers invest more in institutions that will display or archive
lower-status cultural traditions (e.g., music of youth subcultures,
or folkways) in ways that enhance the status/prestige of these
groups?
Arts institutions might provide alternative sources of prestige
for members of a community who feel shut out of the dominant forms.
For example, research has shown that certain institutions are
more likely to generate more egalitarian and less isolated friendship
structures. In schools, perhaps the arts serve as an alternative
source of prestige for kids who do not feel validated by the dominant
prestige structure, whether that structure rotates around academics
or sports. With alternative sources of prestige, there are more
opportunities for people to feel important in their community
(higher status). More research should be directed at understanding
the role that arts courses and activities play in shaping schoolchildren’s
friendship structures and moderating school prestige systems.
Finally, Swidler emphasized the need to focus on “cultural
stuff” itself, rather than the instrumental role that culture
plays in producing other socially desirable outcomes. She asked,
“Why not see if arts programs increase the amount of art
on parent’s refrigerators?” Perhaps policy makers
and community leaders can agree that more creative expression
– more cultural work –- is a good thing in itself.
Innovation and creativity are legitimate and valuable outcomes.
Others have found that competitive market conditions lead to more
innovation and more diverse cultural forms. Perhaps, arts funders
could intervene, when appropriate, in markets in order to encourage
more competition. Likewise, research has found that where audiences
and producers interact on a regular basis (e.g., jazz, which is
performed in clubs where listeners are often also knowledgeable
aficionados) innovative flourishes. Perhaps there are ways to
intervene to instill in popular culture circuits some of the same
organizational features that characterize high culture circuits:
to provide spaces, for example, where critics, producers and audiences
interact intensely, providing more avenues for feedback and more
room for innovation.
Discussion: One challenge for the cultural community
is making the case that the outcomes we are interested in (more
and better art and creativity) are important. In other fields,
like mental health or crime, there already exists a consensus
around a desired outcome. Swidler’s presentation encourages
us to think about a range of indicators that we might measure
– community health or robustness; creativity and innovation
as a pattern of collective behavior; creative work in non artistic
occupations; shared narratives and collective identity. And, we
might develop methods to study any one of these indicators. The
challenge is to create an aggregate picture: do we have a synchronized
way to bring all this together? Additionally, we need to continue
to remind ourselves that research must find an audience among
policy makers. So, for example, research on prestige structures
might prove revealing, but this will need to be translated into
terms that make sense to school leaders, policy makers, and parents.
To what extent is the particular content of art important, and
to what extent should we focus on art’s functions (e.g.,
to foster social relations, provide avenues for self expression)?
For example, art activities may bring people together to build
friendships, but other activities (e.g., sports) do the same thing,
and might do it better. We need to think about what is distinctive
about art and culture. Swidler makes clear that one distinctive
characteristic of art is that it produces cultural meaning for
a community and fosters collective memory.
Some narratives serve not only to build solidarity and understanding
within a community but also serve to build bridges between different
groups and communities (or to maintain boundaries). Thus it is
important to recognize that people might share a common framework
or overarching story, but differ in the way that framework is
interpreted. A robust community may depend on shared cultural
narratives that are open to reinterpretation and evolution, and
which can serve to link different communities together, not just
strengthen existing structures.
Concluding Session: Taking Stock and Implications for
Research
Grantmakers began the final session by discussing
the type of research on community cultural impacts they would
like to see. Given what was learned at the meeting, one person
called for “a much deeper conversation and an acknowledgement
of the complexity of the cultural sector,” recognizing “that
the sector has changed in the last 20 years and that we lack the
methodologies and concepts to explain the change to the greater
American public.” This deeper understanding should include
research into the causal processes that lead to systemic effects.
As an example, what is the relationship between innovation (at
the community level) and the resilience or robustness of a community,
neighborhood, or urban area? Or, can we better link how the arts
connect to quality of life? And, in addition to tracing real
effects, it would be useful to measure people’s perceptions
of how art and culture contribute to community life.
In addition to demonstrating how cultural practices or institutions
benefit communities, others felt that it is essential to deal
with the question of opportunity costs. Are investments in cultural
practices more effective than investments in other solutions when
faced with pressing community problems?
There was considerable discussion about a systems approach to
understanding the cultural sector. Can we better explain the patterns
and interconnections among cultural organizations and artists?
What institutions and resources, and what relationships among
them, are most strongly related to innovation? How can we explain
the diversity or heterogeneity of the system? And, what are the
consequences for communities of differing degrees of diversity
in a cultural system? We also need to know more about the “policy
system” – the actors and institutions that shape the
environments within which artists work – in order for funders
and policy makers to know if they are pulling the right levers
in their efforts to induce change.
One suggested research strategy is to create a macro model that
could trace the supply and demand of arts and cultural programming
(using data on artists, arts and cultural organizations, and audiences)
over two or three decades. Such a model might also include information
about community health, economic growth and demographic change.
(Much economic and demographic data now can be mapped easily to
local levels from nationally collected data sets using GIS.) .
We need good comparative research (field experiments or studies
of several communities over time) would make it possible to understand
better the causal connection between cultural activity and other
outcomes. . Field experiments should focus on communities where
it seems plausible that a small intervention can have a discernible
effect.
Following this idea, it was suggested that it may be more practical
to start by studying urban systems of modern scale – perhaps
four or five smaller cities like Trenton and Sacramento –
than to attempt studies of the largest metropolitan areas (e.g.,
New York or Chicago). Collaborating research teams in each city
would collect data on a range of important dependent variables
(indicators of community cultural health) such as creativity and
innovation; heterogeneity and diversity of cultural practices
and organizations; arts participation; economic health, and social
capital. Next, researchers would identify and enumerate the parts
of the arts system that might be influential. These would include
(1) artists (2) arts organizations (including nonprofits, unincorporated
and embedded institutions, sources of support and infrastructure,
and commercial cultural enterprises); and (3) the public (with
information on demographics, arts participation, and social and
cultural attitudes). In order to identify causal effects over
a time frame adequate to discern them, such a ambitious project
would collect data every year (or every 2 years) in each of the
sites for at least 10 years.
Using these data one could employ a variety of modeling strategies.
Such strategies would include
- Hierarchical models that examine the impact of community
or neighborhood context on individual level outcomes (e.g.,
arts participation, civic participation, identification with
the community, mental health);
- Population models that examine interdependence among
the size and vital rates of the most important components of
a system – e.g., to what degree and in what ways do the
size and health of populations of established nonprofit arts
organizations, grass roots neighborhood organizations, commercial
arts enterprises, and avant-garde self-sustaining arts organizations
depend on the health and size of the other populations? For
example, do you need grassroots organizations to build and nurture
the others successful commercial arts enterprises?
- Network models, to understand how resources and assistance
(funds, personnel, volunteers, information) flow through the
system.
This type of study would get beyond the current piecemeal efforts
to understand the cultural sector. Although the resources to sustain
this large a study may not be available, a beginning strategy
would be to undertake a piece of it in one location, with the
hope that the results will be of such striking value that they
will catalyze additional efforts. Many important lines of research
in the social sciences begin with a paradigmatic study that generates
publicity and stakes out important methodological and theoretical
ground. (Robert Putnam’s early work on the decline of civil
society is an excellent example.). These critical studies, which
may be modest in size, lead to larger efforts because they set
an agenda for a research community, with scholars drawing on similar
data, methods and theories to critique, refine and advance important
ideas.
Concern was expressed that too few talented scholars are taking
up these issues. Academics and funders must provide incentives
for young scholars to study cultural policy, and also work hard
to package good research so that policy makers will draw upon
the most rigorous studies, rather than the more superficial studies
that are easier to digest. Perhaps the National Arts Journalism
Program (NAJP) and the Cultural Policy and the Arts National Data
Archive (C-PANDA) should collaborate to sponsor a presentation
once a year to introduce journalists to the most important new
research findings that relate to the cultural sector.
It was noted that research on metro areas should be alert to
the fact that different groups within a community employ the arts
and culture in different ways. The “impact” of art
and culture will be different in immigrant communities than in
non-immigrant communities, and may differ as well between urban/suburban
residents, and by race and ethnicity. It is important to be careful
in defining “communities” in order to examine how
cultural support systems work for different populations. Finally,
several participants felt that we still had not adequately defined
the problems that these models and methods are intended to answer,
and suggested the importance of paring down the number of research
agendas and questions. They argued that the field needs to come
to preliminary agreement on a researchable problem, establish
common vocabulary or indicators, identify a small number of research
questions and then marshal the funding and scholarship to mount
a paradigmatic study.
Finally, there was discussion about how to use mapping software
(like GIS – Geographical Information Systems) to create
data sets that link the arts and culture to community-level indicators.
For example, at Berkeley, scholars are creating the Electronic
Cultural Atlas Initiative to map all cultural activities and organizations
in Berkeley. Doing this on a national scale, across multiple communities,
would produce a powerful data set. For example, one might be able
to identify an “innovation index” for each community
and link this to community demographics and organizational, political,
and economic characteristics. The GIS allows you to link cultural
information with other community level information in a particular
space or geocode. The Unified Database of Arts Organizations produced
by the Urban Institute and the National Assembly of State Arts
Agencies has been equipped to support geocodes.
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