| Lars E.O. Svensson Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University Deputy Governor, Sveriges Riksbank |
Princeton University
 |
| Lars E.O. Svensson Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University Deputy Governor, Sveriges Riksbank |
Princeton University
|
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Practical
monetary policy | Work in progress
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Recent work: Research | Comments,
debate, other |
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What is new? Top | New | Previous new items
New
appointment:
Affiliated Professor at the Institute for International Economis Studies,
Stockholm University, from June 25, 2009.
New
revision and result (optimal policy under commitment fits Riksbank past policy
better than simple instrument rule or not depending on policy shock or not): "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational
Medium-Sized DSGE Model" (with Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen,
and Jesper Lindé, Sveriges Riksbank), June 2009.
New revision:
"Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy
DSGE Model" (with
Malin Adolfson and Stefan Laséen, Sveriges Riksbank, and Jesper Lindé, Federal
Reserve Board), June 2009.
New speech:
"Theory Meets Practice: What Have I Learned Doing Inflation
Targeting?" speech at the conference Inflation Targeting Twenty Years On,
Norges Bank, June 11-12, 2009.
New
speech: "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets at the
Effective Lower Bound," speech at the conference Financial
Markets and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Board, June 4-5, 2009.
New panel
presentation: "Monetary
Policy at the ZLB in the Current Crisis," panel presentation at the
conference on Quantitative Approaches to Monetary Policy in Open Economies,
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, May 15-16, 2009.
New
paper: "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths
in Policy Simulations" (with
Stefan Laséen, Sveriges Riksbank), April 2009.New
publication: "Transparency under Flexible Inflation Targeting:
Experiences and Challenges," Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review
1/2009, 5-44.New speech:
"Evaluating Monetary Policy," speech at Uppsala
University, March 13, 2009.New
interview: SR International, Radio Sweden, February
18, 2009.New speech:
"Monetary Policy with a Zero Interest Rate," speech at
SNS, Stockholm, February 17, 2009.New risks of
deflation and liquidity trap:
Link to my work on
the topicNew lecture:
"Optimal Monetary Policy," keynote lecture at the
Workshop on Optimal Monetary Policy, Norges Bank, November 21-22, 2008.Old paper
made easily available: "Term, Inflation, and Foreign
Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment," November 1993. New
lectures:
The
2008 Lindahl Lectures: Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice,
Uppsala University, October 28-30, 2008.New
discussion: "Comments on Marvin Goodfriend
and Robert G. King, 'The Great Inflation Drift'," The Great Inflation
Conference, Woodstock, VT, September 25-27, 2008.New
discussion: "Comments on Dale, Orphanides, and Österholm,
'Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction," SNB
Research Conference, September 19-20, 2008.New
written discussion: "Beyond Rational Expectations: Practical Policy
Considerations -- Comment on Sims," discussion at the 7th BIS Annual Conference, June 26-27,
2008New
presentation: "The Future of Inflation Targeting and the
Present at the Riksbank," presentation at the conference on International Experience with the Conduct of Monetary Policy under Inflation
Targeting, Bank of Canada, July 22-23, 2008.New
presentation: "Monetary Policy at the Riksbank and the
Phillips Curve," presentation at the conference Understanding
Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston, June 2008.New
presentation: "Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy at the
Riksbank," presentation at the conference on Recognizing and
Coping with Macroeconomic Model Uncertainty in Designing Monetary Policy, Bank
of Korea, Seoul, May 26-27, 2008.New paper: "Optimal
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic
Approach" (with Noah Williams,
PrincetonUniversity), March 2008.New paper: "Optimal
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic
Approach" (with Noah Williams,
Princeton University),
March 2008.New
presentation: "Modern Monetary Policy," presentation for
Norwegian university teachers and students, Norges Bank, Oslo, March 6, 2008.New
presentation: "Flexible Inflation Targeting and the Latest
Interest-Rate Decision" (in Swedish), presentation at the Central
Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), Stockholm, February 27, 2008.New
presentation: "Flexible Inflation Targeting and the
Interest-Rate Path," presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco, February 25, 2008.New
discussion: Discussion of Roel Beetsma, "A Survey of the
Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy," presented at the conference on "Fiscal
Policy and Labour Market Reforms" in Stockholm, January 29, 2008.New section:
Practical monetary policy. Policy-related
speeches and presentations since May 2007.
|
Stockholm: Tel + 46 8 787 0107 Fax + 46 8 21 0531 Email Lars.Svensson@riksbank.se |
Postal address: Sveriges Riksbank, (Brunkebergstorg 11), SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden |
Delivery addresss: Sveriges Riksbank, Klara Östra kyrkogata 4, Brunkebergsfaret 6, SE-111 52 Stockholm, Sweden |
Administrative assistant Top | New
Stockholm:
Eva Cory
Tel + 46 8 787 0648
Fax + 46 8 21 0531
Email eva.cory@riksbank.se
Practical monetary policy
Top | New
Riksbank monetary policy decisions: Meetings, Report/Update, Press Release, and Attributed Minutes. English, Swedish.
Policy-related speeches, presentations, and papers since my appointment as Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank in May 2007
"Theory
Meets Practice: What Have I Learned Doing Inflation Targeting?" speech at the
conference
Inflation Targeting Twenty Years On, Norges Bank, June 11-12, 2009.
Slides.
"Monetary
Policy and Financial Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," speech at the
conference
Financial Markets and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Board, June 4-5,
2009. Slides.
"Monetary
Policy at the ZLB in the Current Crisis," panel presentation at the conference
on
Quantitative Approaches to Monetary Policy in Open Economies, Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta, May 15-16, 2009.
Slides.
"Evaluating
Monetary Policy," speech at Uppsala University, March 13, 2009.
English,
Swedish.
The line: When evaluating a flexible inflation-targeting regime, it is not enough to simply compare the outcome for inflation with the inflation target; it is necessary to evaluate the central bank's decisions primarily on the basis of the information that was available when the decisions were made (ex ante).
Interview on
SR International-Radio Sweden, February 18, 2009.
Listen.
"Monetary
Policy with a Zero Interest Rate," speech at SNS, Stockholm, February 17, 2009.
English,
Swedish.
The line: Central banks have powerful policy options with a zero interest rate and can still stabilize inflation and the real economy.
"Optimal
Monetary Policy," keynote lecture at the Workshop on Optimal Monetary Policy,
Norges Bank, November 21-22, 2008,
slides.
The line: Optimal monetary policy can in theory be seen as equivalent to choosing an optimal policy function, but it can in practice better be seen as choosing an optimal projection of the instrument rate, inflation, and resource utilization in a set of feasible projections so as to minimize an intertemporal loss functin corresponding to central-bank objectives.
The
2008 Lindahl Lectures: Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice,
Department of Economics,
Uppsala University, October 28-30, 2008.
Details. Slides
Lecture 1. Slides
Lecture 2.
Slides Lecture 3.
"Comments on
Dale, Orphanides, and Österholm, 'Imperfect Central Bank Communication:
Information versus Distraction," SNB Research Conference, September 19-20, 2008,
slides.
The line: The paper's argument against publishing central-bank forecasts requires the unlikely combination of (1) the central-bank forecast being much worse than the private-sector forecast and (2) the private-sector incorrectly believing the central-bank forecast is much better.
"Transparency
under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Experiences and Challenges,"
Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 1/2009, 5-44.
PDF.
Abstract.
The line: Some personal views and reflections on transparency experiences and challenges following my first year as Deputy Governor at Sveriges Riksbank.
"The Future
of Inflation Targeting and the Present at the Riksbank," discussion at the
conference on International Experience with the Conduct of
Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, July 22-23, 2008,
slides.
The line: .The present state of inflation targeting and management of interest-rate expectations at the Riksbank.
"Beyond
Rational Expectations: Practical Policy Considerations -- Comment on Sims," discussion at the 7th
BIS Annual Conference, June 26-27, 2008,
slides.
The line: Three examples of management and analysis of expectations at the Riksbank.
"Monetary
Policy at the Riksbank and the Phillips Curve," presentation at the conference
Understanding
Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston, June 9-11, 2008,
slides.
The line: Phillips curves are crucial in the Riksbank's DSGE model Ramses, and Ramses is crucial in the monetary-policy decision process.
"Model
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy at the Riksbank," presentation at the conference
on
Recognizing and Coping with Macroeconomic Model Uncertainty in Designing
Monetary Policy, Bank of Korea, Seoul, May 26-27, 2008,
slides.
The line: Riksbank handles model uncertainty via informal model averaging and the use of judgment.
"Modern
Monetary Policy," presentation for Norwegian university teachers and students,
Norges Bank, Oslo, March 6, 2008,
slides.
The line: Some fundamental principles of modern monetary policy and basic aspects of flexible inflation targeting.
"Flexible
Inflation Targeting and the Latest Interest-Rate Decision" (in Swedish),
presentation at the Central Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), Stockholm,
February 27, 2008, slides.
The line: Some fundamental principles for flexible inflation targeting and the motivations for the Riksbank's latest decision about the interest-rate and the interest-rate path.
"Flexible
Inflation Targeting and the Interest-Rate Path," presentation at the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 25, 2008,
slides.
The line: Some fundamental principles for flexible inflation targeting and the Riksbank's development of monetary policy by publishing its own interest-rate path.
Discussion
of Roel Beetsma, "A Survey of the Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy,"
presented at the conference on "Fiscal Policy and Labour Market
Reforms" in Stockholm, January 29, 2008,
slides.
"What Have Economists Learned about Monetary Policy over the past 50 Years?," presented at the conference "Monetary Policy over Fifty Years" in Frankfurt am Main, September 21, 2007, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Paper, revised Janurary 2008. Press release, September 2008.
The line: A personal view about the research on monetary policy that is most relevant to practical monetary policy, starting with Milton Friedman's Presidential Address in December 1997.
"Monetary Policy," lecture at Stockholm School of Economics, November 29, 2007, slides.
A lecture on modern monetary policy regimes: mandate, independence and accountability; monetary policy in Sweden; and flexible inflation targeting and the interest-rate path.
"Recent and Prospective Developments of Monetary Policy," presentation at the Meeting for Nordic Central-Bank Economists, Stockholm, September 14, 2007; the Czech National Bank, Prague, June 28, 2007; and the conference on Inflation Targeting, Central Bank Independence and Transparency, Cambridge, UK, June 15-16, 2007. Slides.
The line: The standard theory of optimal monetary policy can be reconciled with the practice flexible inflation targeting by formulating forecast targeting as a choice of an optimal projection of inflation, resource utilization, and the instrument rate from a set of feasible projections that are given by the current state of the economy and the projection model, while taking determinacy and commitment issues into account.
"Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Path," speech at the Danske Bank, Stockholm, August 22, 2007. Extensive press release, slides.
The line: Some fundamental principles for flexible inflation targeting and the Riksbank's development of monetary policy by publishing its own interest-rate path.
"Modern Monetary Policy Regimes: Mandate, Independence, and Accountability," presentation at the ECPRD Meeting on Parliaments and Central Banks: A Vital Relationship, Stockholm, June 8-9, 2007. Slides.
The line: Modern monetary-policy regimes are built on three pillars: mandate, independence, and accountability.
Work in progress when no paper is yet available.
Recent work Research | Comments, debate, other | Top | New
CEPR Discussion Papers
NBER Working
Papers Enter "Lars Svensson" in the search box for
a complete chronological listing.
Research | Comments, debate, other | Top | New
"Anticipated
Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations" (with
Stefan Laséen, Sveriges Riksbank), April 2009,
PDF.
Abstract.
The line: We show how to do policy simulations with alternative arbitrary instrument-rate paths that are anticipated rather than unanticipated as in the method of modest interventions of Leeper and Zha.
"Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model" (with Malin Adolfson and Stefan Laséen, Sveriges Riksbank, and Jesper Lindé, Federal Reserve Board), June 2009, PDF. Abstract.The line: We examine the transmission of shocks under optimal and other policies in Ramses, the Riksbank's open-economy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis.
"Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model" (with Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, and Jesper Lindé, Sveriges Riksbank), June 2009, PDF. Abstract. Technical Appendix.The line: We show how to construct optimal policy simulation in Ramses, the Riksbank's open-economy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Optimal policy under commitment fits Riksbank past policy better than simple instrument rule without policy shock.
"
"Optimal
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic
Approach" (with Noah Williams,
Princeton University),
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Review,
forthcoming,
PDF.
Abstract.
The line: We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to analyze how policy is affected by uncertainty, learning, and experimentation, finding that learning may have sizeable effects on losses and need not always be beneficial, whereas the experimentation component typically has little effect and can in some cases lead to attenuation of policy.
"Optimal
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic
Approach" (with Noah Williams,
Princeton University), presented at the conference on Monetary Policy Under
Uncertainty and Learning, Santiago, Chile, November 2007,
PDF.
Abstract.
The line: We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to a benchmark New Keynesian model, analyzing how policy is affected by uncertainty, and how learning and active experimentation affect policy and losses. .
"What Have Economists Learned about Monetary Policy over the past 50 Years?," presented at the conference "Monetary Policy over Fifty Years" in Frankfurt am Main, September 21, 2007, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Revised January 2008. PDF
.The line: A personal view about the research on monetary policy that is most relevant to practical monetary policy, starting with Milton Friedman's Presidential Address in December 1997.
"Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy" (with Andrea Ferrero, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Mark Gertler, New York University), September 2007, PDF. Abstract.
The line: For different scenarios for U.S.-relevant current-account adjustment in a two-country DSGE model, it is shown that the behavior of domestic variables such as inflation and output is quite sensitive to the monetary policy regime, whereas the behavior of international variables such as the current account and the real exchange rate is less so.
"Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty" (with Noah Williams, Princeton University), September 2007, PDF. Abstract.
The line: Bayesian optimal policy (which includes both learning and experimentation) in a both general and tractable case of model uncertainty is compared to adaptive optimal policy (which includes learning but excludes experimentation), and the results indicate that optimal experimentation brings only modest gains above the learning under adaptive optimal policy.
"Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting" (with Noah Williams, Princeton University), May 2007, PDF. Abstract and Matlab programs.The line: A very flexible, powerful, and yet tractable framework for the analysis and determination of optimal monetary policy under model uncertainty and certainty non-equivalence is introduced and shown to incorporate a large variety of different configurations of uncertainty and central-bank judgment.
"The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," in Stability and Economic Growth: The Role of Central Banks, Banco de Mexico, 2006, 175-198, PDF. Abstract.
The line: By publishing optimal projections of the instrument rate, inflation, and the output gap with uncertainty intervals, together with discussion, alternative scenarios, criteria for optimal projections (targeting rules), and cross-checking with alternative policy rules, Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) has provided a model in transparent flexible inflation targeting for other central banks.
"Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank" (with Olivier Jeanne, IMF), American Economic Review 97 (2007) 474-490, PDF. Abstract.The line: A central bank's realistic concern about its capital provides a commitment mechanism that can solve the time-consistency problem associated with the optimal escape from a liquidity trap.
Longer working paper version, PDF, July 2004. Data (Excel file)
The line: Morris and Shin's result in their 2002 AER paper has widely been interpreted as an anti-transparency result, but it is actually a pro-transparency result.
"Monetary Policy and Japan’s Liquidity Trap," January 2006, prepared for the ESRI International Conference on Policy Options for Sustainable Economic Growth in Japan, Cabinet Office, Tokyo, September 14, 2005, PDF. Abstract.
The line: Monetary policy in Japan has focused on reducing expectations of future interest rates, but a more effective policy in a liquidity trap is to increase expectations of the future price level. The Foolproof Way is likely to be the most effective policy to do this.
The line:
Substantial progress can be made by inflation-targeting central banks by (1) employing an explicit intertemporal loss function, (2) making explicit decisions on optimal projection paths of the instrument rate, (3) publishing such projections, and (4) incorporating judgment and model uncertainty in a systematic way. "The Role of Science in Best-Practice Monetary Policy: In Honor of Otmar Issing," presented at "Monetary Policy: A Journey from Theory to Practice," an ECB Colloqium held in honor of Otmar Issing in Frankfurt, March 16-17, 2006, PDF. Abstract.The line: There is a considerable amount of science in current best-practice monetary policy, but a considerable amount of judgment is also needed., which judgment preferably should be used in a systematic and disciplined way.
"The Magic of the Exchange Rate: Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap in Small and Large Open Economies," Version 1.2, July 2004, PDF. Abstract.Related speech: Ben Bernanke, "The Logic of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Board, December 2004, discusses forecast targeting (called "forecast-based policies") and simple instrument rules (called "simple feedback policies") with reference to "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting."
"Optimal Policy with Low-Probability Extreme Events," in Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability - A Festschrift for Charles Freedman, Proceedings of a conference held by the Bank of Canada, Ottawa, June 2003, 79-104. PDF. Abstract.
"Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4) (Fall 2003) 145-166, PDF. Abstract.
"Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," (with Michael Woodford, Columbia University), in Bernanke, Ben S., and Michael Woodford, eds. (2005), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press, 19-83. PDF. Abstract.
"Liquidity Traps, Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting, and Eurosystem Monetary-Policy Strategy," research summary, NBER Reporter, Winter 2002/2003, PDF. Previous research summary for NBER Reporter, Winter 97/98.
"What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Version 3.1, January 2003, Journal of Economic Literature 41 (2003) 426-477, PDF. Abstract.
"Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What Is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (2005) 613-626, PDF. Abstract.
The line: A response to McCallum and Nelson's (2005) paper "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy," which criticizes my JEL 2003 article "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules."
A speech by Ben Bernanke, "The Logic of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Board, December 2004, discusses these issue (forecast targeting/targeting rules are called "forecast-based policies" and simple instrument rules are called "simple feedback policies").
"An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway," by Lars E.O. Svensson (chair) (Princeton University), Kjetil Houg (Alfred Berg), Haakon Solheim (Norwegian School of Management BI) and Erling Steigum (Norwegian School of Management BI), Norges Bank Watch 2002, Centre for Monetary Economics, Norwegian School of Management BI, September 2002.
"Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," September 2002, in Rethinking Stabilization Policy, A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 29-31, 2002, 261-312, PDF. Abstract.
"Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux," (with Michael Woodford, Columbia University), June 2002, PDF. Abstract.
"Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," (with Michael Woodford, Columbia University), June 2002, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28 (2004) 661-690, PDF. Abstract.
"Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?" (with Stefan Gerlach, Hong Kong Monetary Authority), Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (2003) 1649-1672, PDF. Abstract. Data (Excel file).
"The Inflation Forecast and the Loss Function," in Paul Mizen, ed. (2003), Central Banking, Monetary Theory and Practice: Essays in Honour of Charles Goodhart, Volume I, Edward Elgar, 135-152. PDF. Abstract.
"Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?" European Economic Review 46 (2002) 771-780, PDF. Abstract.
"The Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap: Is It Really, and Can It Help Japan?" The Frank D. Graham Memorial Lecture, Princeton University, April 5, 2001. Non-technical summary | Overhead slides (PDF)
"Requiem for Forecast-Based Instrument Rules," April 2001, PDF. Abstract.
"Robust Control Made Simple: Lecture Notes," February 2007, PDF.
"Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," (with Michael Woodford, Columbia University), Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (2003) 691-720. PDF. Abstract.
"The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1), February 2001, 277-312, PDF. Abstract.
"The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," (with Jon Faust, Federal Reserve Board), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34 (2002) 520-539, PDF. Abstract.
"Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," (with Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), European Economic Review 46 (2002) 417-442, PDF. Abstract.
"The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?" American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 90, May 2000, 95-99, PDF. Abstract.
"Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals" (with Jon Faust, Federal Reserve Board), International Economic Review 42 (2001) 369-397, PDF. Abstract.
"How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability?" in New Challenges for Monetary Policy, a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 26-28, 1999 (IIES Seminar Paper No. 680, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2342, NBER Working Paper No. 7516), PDF (0.4 MB). Abstract.
"Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," in Deutsche Bundesbank, ed. (2001), The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe, Palgrave, New York, 60-102. (CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2196, NBER Working Paper No. 7276), PDF. Abstract.
"Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?" German Economic Review 1 (February 2000) 69-81. (IIES Seminar Paper No. 671, June 1999, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2198, NBER Working Paper No. 7178), PDF. Abstract.
"Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conferences Series on Public Policy 51(1) (1999) 79-136.
"Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics 101(3) (1999) 337-361.
"Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31 (1999) 277-295.
"Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting" (with Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), in John B. Taylor (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press, 1999. IIES Seminar Paper No. 637, March 1998, (NBER Working Paper No. 6512), PDF. Abstract.
"Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 155-183.
"Inflationsmål i en öppen ekonomi: Strikt eller flexibelt inflationsmål?" ("Inflation Targeting in an Open Economy: Strict or Flexible Inflation Targeting?"), Ekonomisk Debatt 26(6) (1998) 431-439, PDF.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting," research summary, NBER Reporter, Winter 1997/8, 5-8, PDF. Recent research summary for NBER Reporter, Winter 2002/2003.
"Inflation Targeting in an Open Economy: Strict or Flexible Inflation Targeting?" Public Lecture held at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, November 18, 1997. Victoria Economic Commentaries 15-1 (March 1998), PDF. Also available as RBNZ Discussion paper G97-8.
"Växelkursmål eller inflationsmål för Norge?" ("Exchange Rate Target or Inflation Target for Norway?", in Swedish), Ekonomisk Debatt 25(8) (1997) 461-472, PDF.
"Exchange Rate Target or Inflation Target for Norway?" in Anne Berit Christiansen and Jan Fredrik Qvigstad, eds., Choosing a Monetary Policy Target, Scandinavian University Press (Universitetsforlaget AS), Oslo, 120-138, 1997, PDF.
"New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments" (with Paul Söderlind, Stockholm School of Economics), Journal of Monetary Economics 40(2) (1997) 373-429, PDF. Abstract and sample Gauss programs. Download printed article from Journal of Monetary Economics. Corrections.
"Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," European Economic Review 41 (1997) 1111-1146, PDF (320 KB). Abstract.
"Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example" (with Mats Persson and Torsten Persson) in G. Calvo and M. King, eds., The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, London, Macmillan, 1998, 28-62, PDF (0.3 MB). Abstract.
"Optimal Inflation Targets, 'Conservative' Central banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review 87 (1997) 98-114. Abstract.
"Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson & Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, Sveriges Riksbank, 1995:3, 13-26, PDF. Abstract. Sample Gauss programs.
"Macroeconomic and Political Determinants of Realignment Expectations: Some European Evidence" (with Andrew K. Rose, University of California at Berkeley), in Barry Eichengreen, Jerry Frieden and Jürgen von Hagen, eds., Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Integrated Europe, Springer, Berlin, 1995.
"Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," (with Magnus Dahlquist, Stockholm School of Economics), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 98 (1996) 163-183.
"The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," in Leonardo Leiderman and Lars E. O. Svensson, eds., Inflation Targets, CEPR, London, 1995.
"Inflation Targets: Introduction" (with Leonardo Leiderman, Tel-Aviv University), in Leonardo Leiderman and Lars E.O. Svensson, eds., Inflation Targets, CEPR, London, 1995.
"Kan man inflatera bort budgetunderskottet?" ("Can One Inflate Away the Budget Deficit?" in Swedish, with Mats Persson and Torsten Persson) in Ekonomisk politik: En vänbok till Assar Lindbeck, SNS, Stockholm, 1995.
Inflation Targets (edited with Leonardo Leiderman, Tel Aviv University), CEPR, London, 1995.
"Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment," NBER Working Paper No. 4544, November 1993, (IIES Seminar Paper No. 548), PDF. Abstract.
Comments, debate, other | Research | Top | New
"Comments on
Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King, 'The Great Inflation Drift'," The Great
Inflation Conference, Woodstock, VT, September 25-27, 2008,
slides.
"Comments on
Dale, Orphanides, and Österholm, 'Imperfect Central Bank Communication:
Information versus Distraction," SNB Research Conference, September 19-20, 2008,
slides.
The line: The paper's argument against publishing central-bank forecasts requires the unlikely combination of (1) the central-bank forecast being much worse than the private-sector forecast and (2) the private-sector incorrectly believing the central-bank forecast is much better.
Discussion
of Roel Beetsma, "A Survey of the Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy,"
presented at the conference on "Fiscal Policy and Labour Market
Reforms" in Stockholm, January 29, 2008,
slides.
"Inflation Targeting," May 2007, in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, edited by Larry Blum and Steven Durlauf, forthcoming, PDF.
The line: Inflation targeting was introduced in New Zealand in 1990; has been very successful in terms of stabilizing both inflation and the real economy; has as of 2007 had been adopted by more than 20 industrialized and non-industrialized countries; and is characterized by an announced numerical inflation target, an implementation of monetary policy that gives a major role to an inflation forecast and has been called ‘inflation-forecast targeting’, and a high degree of transparency and accountability.
"Optimization under Commitment and Discretion, the Recursive Saddlepoint Method, and Targeting Rules and Instrument Rules: Lecture Notes," December 2007, PDF.
The line: Solutions to the stochastic linear-quadratic problem with forward-looking variables under commitment and discretion, now with the practical recursive saddlepoint method of Marcet and Marimon, and compact definitions of instrument rules and targeting rules.
"Comment on Jeffrey Frankel, 'Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy'," in Campbell, John Y. (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, forthcoming, PDF.
"Monetary-Policy Challenges: Monetary-Policy Responses to Oil-Price Changes,'' presented at the meeting of the Bellagio Group of the G10, held at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, January 13-14, 2006, PDF.
The line: Central banks should respond to oil prices to the extent these impact forecasts of inflation and the output gap, and because this impact is complex, the response will be be complex and cannot be represented by a simple instrument rule.
"The Riksbank Should Learn from Norway" (in Swedish), interview in Dagens Industri, January 14, 2006, PDF.
"Comments on 'Grading the Federal Open Market Committee’s Communications' by Vincent Reinhart and Brian Sack," presented at the ASSA meeting in Boston, January 7, 2006, slides.
"Discussion of Faruqee, Laxton, Muir, and Pesenti, 'Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing'," presented at the NBER Conference on G7 Current Account Imbalances, Newport, RI, June 2005; to be published in Clarida, Richard, editor, G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, University of Chicago Press, forthcoming, PDF.
The line: Impressive paper and model, but the authors do not fully utilize the model's potential to a synthesis of and an improvement on recent papers on the US current account.
"Monetary Policy and Central Bank Communication," presentation at the conference "ECB and Its Watchers," Frankfurt, June 3, 2005, PDF.
"Comment on Brock and Durlauf, 'Local Robustness Analysis: Theory and Applications'," AEA Meeting, Philadelphia, January 2005, overhead slides.
The line: Brock and Durlauf (2004) provides an elegant and compact analysis in the frequency domain of local robust control, but there are many limitations of their method, which makes it less practical.
"Comments on Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack, 'An Empirical Assessment of Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound'," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2004:2, 84-100. PDF. Abstract.
The line: The Bernanke-Reinhart-Sack paper mostly focuses on alternative policies in a liquidity trap to affect expectations of future interest rates. But the problem in a liquidity trap is rather to raise private-sector expectations of the future price level.
"Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What Is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (2005) 613-626, PDF. Abstract.
The line: A response to McCallum and Nelson's (2005) paper "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy," which criticizes my JEL 2003 article "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules."
Comments on Mishkin, Frederic M., "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries," Festschrift in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo, IMF, Washington, DC, April 15 and 16, 2004, overhead slides.
"Flexible Inflation Targeting: Principles and Possible Improvements," seminar at Norges Bank (Bank of Norway), Oslo, on March 25, 2004 (shorter version presented at Conference on Monetary Policy, Norges Bank, March 26, 2004), overhead slides.
"Reviews of Monetary Policy in New Zealand and Norway," Newsletter, July 2004, Study Center Gerzensee, Gerzensee, Switzerland. PDF.
"Challenges for Monetary Policy,'' presented at the meeting of the Bellagio Group of the G10, held at the National Bank of Belgium, Brussels, January 26-27, 2004, PDF.
"Interview: Lars Svensson," interview in Central Banking, Vol. XIV, No. 2, November 2003, 51-59, PDF.
"Commentary” (on Laurence H. Meyer, “Practical Problems and Obstacles to Inflation Targeting"), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 84(4) (July/August 2004) 161-164, PDF.
"Monetary Policy and Learning," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 2003, 11-16, PDF.
Briefing papers for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament for the Dialogue with ECB.
Discussion of Francesco Lippi and Stefano Neri, "Information Variables for Monetary Policy in a Small Structural Model of the Euro Area," Workshop on Small Structural Models for Monetary Policy Analysis: Progress, Puzzles, and Opportunities, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, June 6-7, 2003, overhead slides.
"Sverige, valutaunionen och penningpolitiken" ("Sweden, the EMU, and Monetary Policy," in Swedish), Ekonomisk Debatt 31(4) (2003) 50-52, PDF. (The piece is a translation and extension of "Sweden and the Euro," January 2002.)
"Comment on Jeffery D. Amato and Hyun Song Shin, 'Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models'," revised June 2003, presented at the conference "Monetary Stability, Financial Stability and the Business Cycle," BIS, Basel, Mar 28-29, 2003, PDF.
"Comment on Edward Nelson, 'The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis'," Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA, Nov 22-23, 2002, Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (2003) 1061-1070, PDF.
Discussion of Alan J. Auerbach and Maurice Obstfeld, "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," FRBSF and SIEPR Conference on Finance and Macroeconomics, San Francisco, Feb 28-Mar 1, 2003, overhead slides.
Discussion of Guenther W. Beck and Volker Wieland, "Learning, Stabilization and Credibility: Optimal Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy," AEA Annual Meeting, Washington, Jan 4, 2003, overhead slides.
Discussion of Frank Smets and Raf Wouters, "Output Gaps: Theory versus Practice," AEA Annual Meeting, Washington, Jan 4, 2003, overhead slides.
Discussion of George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," AEA Annual Meeting, Washington, Jan 5, 2003, overhead slides.
Talk at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, "Escaping from Deflation and a Liquidity Trap," Dec 17, 2002, overhead slides.
Discussion of Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor, "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs amonge Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," NBER International Finance and Macro Program Meeting, Cambridge, MA, Oct 18, 2002, overhead slides (3.2 MB).
Discussion of Vitor Gaspar and Frank Smets, "Monetary Policy, Price Stability and Output Gap Stabilization," and Justin Wolfers, "Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Wellbeing," at the conference "Stabilizing the Economy: What Roles for Fiscal and Monetary Policy?," July 11, 2002, New York, PDF.
"Possible Improvements of the Eurosystem's Monetary Policy Regime," talk at the Nordic Central Bank Meeting, Mariehamn, Åland, June 25, 2002, overhead slides.
"Comments on Nancy Stokey, 'Rules and Discretion' after Twenty-Five Years," NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, 54-62. PDF.
Discussion of Sebastian Edwards and Igal Magendzo, "A Currency of One's Own? An Empirical Invistigation on Dollarization and Independent Currency Unions," at the Sveriges Riksbank and IIES Conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets in an Enlarged EU, Stockholm, May 17-18, 2002, overhead slides.
Discussion of Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters, "Monetary Policy in an Estimated SDGE Model of the Euro Area," at the conference "Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mar 1-2, 2002, overhead slides.
"Bordering on Abuse," interview (in Swedish) in Dagens Industri, February 15, 2002, on the Riksbank's Governing Board's plan to obey, against the Executive Board's recommendation, the Government's request to hand over 20 bn kronor ($2 bn) of the Riksbank's capital to the Government in order to contribute to the Government's budget.
Discusson of Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams, "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," Econometric Society North American Winter Meeting, Atlanta, Jan 4-6, 2002, overhead slides.
Discussion of Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate," American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Jan 4-6, 2002, overhead slides.
Comment on Michael Woodford, "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy," in Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Woodford, eds., Knowledge, Information and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, Princeton University Press, 2003, 59-63, PDF.
"How Japan Can Recover," Financial Times, Sep 25, 2001.
Discussion of Calvo, Celasun and Kumhof, "A Theory of Rational Inflation Inertia," IFM Workshop, NBER Summer Institute, July 16, 2001, overhead slides.
"Two and a Half Years of the Eurosystem," presented at the CFS Research Conference on the ECB and Its Watchers III, Frankfurt, June 18, 2001, overhead slides.
Discussion of Anne Sibert, "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Central Bank Preferences," presented at ISOM, Dublin, June 8-9, 2001, overhead slides.
Discussion of Blinder, Goodhart, Hildebrand, Lipton and Wyplosz, "How Do Central Banks Talk?" presented at the Third Geneva Conference, Geneva, May 4, 2001, overhead slides.
"Comments on Gaspar, Peres-Quiros and Sicilia, 'The ECB Monetary Strategy and the Money Market'," Vienna, April 19-20, 2001, PDF.
Discussion of McCallum, "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," FRBSF and SIEPR Conference on Asset Prices, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy, Stanford University, March 2-3, 2001, overhead slides.
Discussion of Clarida, Gali and Gertler, "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Association Annual Meeting, January 5, 2001, overhead slides.
Discussion of Alvarez, Lucas and Weber, "Interest Rates and Inflation," American Economic Association Annual Meeting, January 5, 2001, overhead slides.
"Riksbanken i världsklass" ("The Riksbank in World Class," in Swedish), interview in Dagens Industri, December 12, 2000.
"Comment on Charles Wyplosz, 'Do We Know How Low Inflation Should Be?'," April 2001, revised version of comments presented at the First ECB Central Banking Conference, Why Price Stability?, Frankfurt, November 2-3, 2000, PDF.
"Comments on Athanasios Orphanides, "The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation," NBER Monetary Economics Program Meeting, Cambridge, MA, April 2000, overhead slides.
"Comment on Isard, Laxton and Eliasson, 'Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty'," in Peter Isard, Assaf Razin and Andrew Rose, eds. (1999), International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, International Monetary Fund, Washington, and Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 251-257, PDF.
"Bristande transparens i ESCBs penningpolitiska strategi" ("Insufficient Transparency in ESCB's Monetary Policy Stratetegy," in Swedish), Europafocus Mars 1999.
"Commentary: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Shocks While Maintaining Long-Run Price Stability?—Conceptual issues,'' in Achieving Price Stability, a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 29-31, 1996, PDF.
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