First draft: September 2005
This version: January 2006
During the long economic slump in Japan, monetary policy in
Japan has essentially consisted of a very low interest rate (since 1995), a zero
interest rate (since 1999), and quantitative easing (since 2001). The intention
seems to have been to lower expectations of future interest rates. But the
problem in a liquidity trap (when the zero lower bound on the central bank’s
instrument rate is strictly binding) is rather to raise private-sector
expectations of the future price level. Increased expectations of a higher
future price level are likely to be much more effective in reducing the real
interest rate and stimulating the economy out of a liquidity trap than a further
reduction of already very low expectations of future interest rates. Therefore,
monetary-policy alternatives in a liquidity trap should be assessed according to
how effective they are likely to be in affecting private-sector expectations of
the future price level. Expectations of a higher future price level would lead
to current depreciation of the currency. Quantitative easing would
induce expectations of a higher price level if it were expected to be permanent.
The absence of a depreciation of the yen and other evidence indicates that the
quantitative easing is not expected to be permanent. In an open economy, the
Foolproof Way (consisting of a price-level target path, currency depreciation
and commitment to a currency peg and a zero interest rate until the price-level
target path has been reached) is likely to be the most effective policy to raise
expectations of the future price level, stimulate the economy, and escape from a
liquidity trap. It is the first-best policy to end stagnation and deflation in
Japan. The Foolproof Way without the explicit exchange-rate policy, namely a
price-level target path and a commitment to a zero interest rate until the
price-level target path has been reached, would be a second-best policy. The
current policy, a commitment to a zero interest rate until inflation has become
nonnegative is at best a third-best policy, since it accommodates all deflation
that has occurred before inflation turns nonnegative and therefore is not
effective in inducing inflation expectations.