examples of paradoxical confirmation by a `refuting' experiment
FURTHER ILLUSTRATIONS OF THE BAYESIAN SOLUTION
OF DUHEM'S PROBLEM
by Jon Dorling
Universiteit van Amsterdam
Table of Contents
The quantitative precision of predictions and observations is irrelevant
to the asymmetric effect of refutations on theory and auxiliary hypothesis
The initial symmetry of the probabilities of T and H is not the origin
of the main asymmetry effect, and in fact plays a rather minor role in
Non-negligible effect of refutations in the social sciences
Examples: Freud, Marx.
Examples: qualitative success with quantitative discrepancies;
Einstein de Haas experiment.
disconfirmation by experimental results which are "too good to be true."
Examples: General Relativity, Brans-Dicke theory, and
the advance of the perihelion of Mercury
Extra-Sensory Perception: evidence for cheating
Freud: the book Rebel Without a Cause,
Dirac and the hydrogen atom spectrum: saved by Pauli
Too successful model calculations in quantum field theory
The thirteenth decimal place of the Lamb shift
to draw the right asymmetric conclusions from two crucial experiments with
directly conflicting results
Examples: The 1919 solar eclipse test of General Relativity
The tests of the Bell-inequality: Holt's results versus
only acquire well-defined substantial subjective probabilities when precise
restricted domains of intended application are specified.
to handle auxiliary hypotheses which are not theory-independent.
illustration of how to make money off a non-Bayesian.
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