- Title and Abstract
- The negligible effect of refutations in cases where most plausible rival theories are equally embarrassed by the observational result
- (a) The quantitative precision of predictions and observations is irrelevant to the asymmetric effect of refutations on theory and auxiliary hypothesis
- (b) The initial symmetry of the probabilities of T and H is not the origin of the main asymmetry effect, and in fact plays a rather minor role in it.
- (c) Non-negligible effect of refutations in the social sciences
- Some examples of paradoxical confirmation by a `refuting' experiment
- Paradoxical disconfirmation by experimental results which are "too good to be true."
- How to draw the right asymmetric conclusions from two crucial experiments with directly conflicting results
- Conclusions
- Notes
- Theories only acquire well-defined substantial subjective probabilities when precise restricted domains of intended application are specified.
- How to handle auxiliary hypotheses which are not theory-independent.
- An illustration of how to make money off a non-Bayesian.
- References

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Universiteit van Amsterdam

Table of Contents

Example: Laplace, Adams, and the secular acceleration of the moon.

Examples: Freud, Marx.

Examples: qualitative success with quantitative discrepancies; Einstein de Haas experiment.

Examples: General Relativity, Brans-Dicke theory, and the advance of the perihelion of Mercury

Extra-Sensory Perception: evidence for cheating

Freud: the book

Dirac and the hydrogen atom spectrum: saved by Pauli

Too successful model calculations in quantum field theory

The thirteenth decimal place of the Lamb shift

Examples: The 1919 solar eclipse test of General Relativity

The tests of the Bell-inequality: Holt's results versus Causer's results

Please write to bayesway@princeton.edu
with any comments or suggestions.