new;
cls;

PROC bosec;
local tm;
tm=time;
RETP(tm[1]*3600+tm[2]*60+tm[3]+tm[4]/100);
ENDP;

PROC(2)=probs(g,b,al);
local p0,p1,d1,d2,d3,c1g1,c1g0,pr2,pr3
         ,ct11,ct10,ct01,ct00,t,it,c2,c3,nseq,jj,c4,pr4,d4;

nseq=16;
t=4;

p0=zeros(nseq,rows(al));
p1=p0;

ct11=zeros(rows(al),t);
ct10=ct11;
ct01=ct11;
ct00=ct11;

it=1;
do while it.le t;
ct11[.,it]=cdfn(g+b[it]+al);
ct01[.,it]=cdfn(b[it]+al);
it=it+1;
endo;
ct10=1-ct11;
ct00=1-ct01;

jj=1;
for d1 (0,1,1);

/*  prob of observed in first period condition on 0th period */

c1g1=(ct11[.,1]*d1+ct10[.,1]*(1-d1));
c1g0=(ct01[.,1]*d1+ct00[.,1]*(1-d1));

/*  prob next period condition on observed this period */

pr2= ct11[.,2]*d1+ct01[.,2]*(1-d1);

for d2 (0,1,1);

c2=pr2*d2+(1-pr2)*(1-d2);
pr3= ct11[.,3]*d2+ct01[.,3]*(1-d2);

for d3 (0,1,1);

c3=pr3*d3+(1-pr3)*(1-d3);
pr4= ct11[.,4]*d3+ct01[.,4]*(1-d3);

for d4 (0,1,1);

c4=pr4*d4+(1-pr4)*(1-d4);

p1[jj,.]=(c1g1 .*c2 .* c3.*c4)' ;
p0[jj,.]=(c1g0 .*c2 .* c3.*c4)' ;

jj=jj+1;
endfor;
endfor;
endfor;
endfor;


RETP(p1,p0);
ENDP;


dlibrary c:\research\forgau95\sim_new\release\sim_new.dll;

library pgraph;
graphset;

begwind;
window(3,3,0);
setwind(1);
_pltype=6;
_plwidth=2;
_pcolor=1;

ga=0.25;  b_tru=0.1;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4a=res;
save res_ttr4a;

ga=0.5;  b_tru=0.1;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4b=res;
save res_ttr4b;

ga=1;  b_tru=0.1;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4c=res;
save res_ttr4c;

ga=0.25;  b_tru=0.2;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4d=res;
save res_ttr4d;

ga=0.5;  b_tru=0.2;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4e=res;
save res_ttr4e;

ga=1;  b_tru=0.2;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4f=res;
save res_ttr4f;

ga=0.25;  b_tru=0.3;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4g=res;
save res_ttr4g;

ga=0.5;  b_tru=0.3;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
nextwind;
res_ttr4h=res;
save res_ttr4h;

ga=1;  b_tru=0.3;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4hlp.prg;
#include c:\research\tamer-replicate\frhome\ttr4pl.prg;
endwind;
res_ttr4i=res;
save res_ttr4i;