posted on the web on March 17 2003

Country Data

Full Name: Republic of Turkey Capital: Ankara Population: 67,308,928 (2002 est.) Location: Europe / Middle East Total area: 780,580 sq km Language: Turkish Ethnic groups: Turkish 80%, Kurdish 20% Religions: Muslim 99.8% Currency: Turkish Lira IGO memberships: NATO, UN, WHO, WTO Internet site: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Source: CIA World Factbook

The one and only secular democratic Muslim state, Turkey had denied the motion to host 62,000 US troops in Turkey. At the moment the US can not open up the second front that would make the war much shorter and life much easier for the Bush Administration. Although the motion was voted 264-250 in favor, it was 3 votes short of the constitutionally mandated simple majority due to 19 abstentions. While tens of thousands of Turks celebrated the denial, opinions of American people changed overnight about the long time NATO ally.

The denial was a complete shock to many considering Turkey’s fragile economy was in need of the potential boost from the loans and grants that the US agreed to provide. The Turkish government was convinced for the deal and the leading party occupies the 2/3s of the parliament. So how come such a “piece of cake” move turned a major disappointment for the Bush Administration?

The Bush Administration, forgetting Turkey is not an emirate but a democratic country, had put too much pressure on the new and inexperienced Turkish government demanding the return for what they are paying. Turkish government officials were “warned” that it might be too late for Turkey to participate in any post-war operations, where the real profit would be. Turkey had bitter experiences during the 1991 Gulf War with the flooding refugees, terrorists sneaking in with the refugees, major economic losses due to closing the border and post-war constraints. While Turkish government was trying to get the maximum compensation they can beforehand this time, the whole nation was pictured in the US media as a crook sheep or carpet salesman trying to rip off his customer. The only thing that would justify Turkey’s approach did not happen; no one from the Bush Senior’s Administration came forward and explained how they did not keep their promises of economic and politic support 12 years ago.

Thousands of Turks, also feeling insulted by the Americans, protested against the still internationally unjustified war and joined the millions worldwide. I can understand how much the American people are afraid that Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction may one day target them. However, while Americans rush to warehouses to buy Duct Tape, Turks are in the range of those weapons of mass destruction and will be a justifiable target when they let US troops to hunt Saddam down. There is quite a difference between watching missiles fly over Baghdad on CNN sitting in your warm and safe home 5,000 miles away and feeling the hot propulsion gas from those missiles in your face.

Can Turkey’s denial stop the war? Can the US back up after all the fuss, after spending already millions of dollars to deploy troops? I do not think so…even if Saddam goes to exile today, the US troops will capture Baghdad tomorrow. Did the US give up the second front? Not just yet. Although the second front is not a must, it will certainly make the operation much easier and faster. The US has still not moved their ships in the Mediterranean to Persian Gulf. Is there still a chance for the second front? Yes, with the new cabinet change expected soon in Turkey and the intense lobbying (but not bullying this time) of US diplomats there is a chance. As General Hilmi Ozkok, Chief of Turkish General Staff, stated after the voting, Turkey has to choose between bad and worse, not good and bad. Which case was worse will be debated for a very long time.

Ozgur Birer is a graduate student from Turkey at Princeton University, United States.