posted on the web on April 17 2003

Country Data

Full Name: United States of America Capital: Washington D.C. Population: 280,562,489 (2002 est.) Location: North America Total area: 9,629,091 sq km Language: English, Spanish Ethnic groups: white 77.1%, black 12.9%, Asian 4.2%, Native 1.8% Religions: Protestant 56%, Roman Catholic 28%, Jewish 2% Currency: US Dollar IGO memberships: G-8, NATO, UN, UNSC, WHO, WTO Internet site: Department of State Source: CIA World Factbook

What depresses me most as I watch the war on Iraq unfold, and the death tolls on the American and Iraqi sides rise, is the recognition that it didn’t have to be this way. We didn’t have to rush into war without air space in Turkey, without support from our historic European allies, and without United Nations approval. Polls indicated that majorities in every major Western European country supported removing Saddam from power. Why did we squander this opportunity for collective security enforcement in favor of a unilateral war?

According to the Bush administration, we could not wait any longer for the world to enforce international law. Iraq would soon have nuclear weapons, and the inevitable outcome would be a mushroom cloud over American cities. It did not matter that Saddam had proved historically deterrable, and that the CIA had no concrete estimates of when Iraq would develop nuclear capabilities. Iraq’s games of deception were over; U.S. force, Bush said, would compensate for the U.N.’s lack of will.

Underpinning the Bush administration’s unilateralism was a belief that U.S. victory in Iraq would be quick, easy, and welcome. The Bush administration seemed to think that the U.S., acting only with Britain, could “shock and awe” Iraq into immediate capitulation. After two days of bombing, Hussein would be dead, Iraq’s weapons would be destroyed, and the Iraqi people would be welcoming their American liberators.

The Bush administration’s confidence, buoyed by Bush’s own faith in God, seemed to permeate every level of war planning. Bush guaranteed that American forces would capture and remove Saddam, even as Osama bin Laden remained on the loose. Bush said that Iraq had definitive ties to al-Qaeda, even as his evidence remained unclear. Bush promised that the Iraqi people would welcome Americans, even as polls showed heightening anger toward the U.S. throughout the Middle East.

The Bush administration seemed to believe that by acting unilaterally the U.S. could achieve the administration’s grand vision of reshaping the world at a low cost. “America, the liberator” did not need a global mandate; after all, Bush told us, the war had a Biblical mandate-never mind that most Christian denominations around the world opposed a unilateral attack.

Country Data

Full Name: Republic of Iraq Capital: Baghdad Population: 24,001,816 (2002 est.) Location: Middle East Total area: 437,072 sq km Language: Arabic Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20% Religions: Muslim 97% Currency: Iraqi dinar IGO memberships: UN, WHO Internet site: Iraq.net Source: CIA World Factbook

Undoubtedly, the Bush administration is right that the U.S. will prevail in Iraq. The U.S. accounts for 40 percent of the world’s military spending. Iraq, by contrast, appears to have been unable to improve its military significantly over the past decade as sanctions have crippled its economy and the threat of inspections has undermined its technological development.

But who wins the war strikes me as an all-too-easy benchmark against which to judge the Bush administration. The Bush administration made a conscious decision to discontinue weapons inspections that, by every U.N. account, were beginning to achieve disarmament. The question, therefore, must be: was the administration’s choice of unilateralism more effective than the alternative of further mobilizing the international community to confront Iraq?

No. As a result of the administration’s unilateralism, the American costs of disarming Iraq are higher, and the security we are achieving is lower than if we had built an international coalition. The war has already been far more costly than the administration anticipated. The administration’s failure both to secure Turkish air bases and to wage the war as part of a coalition has meant high financial and human costs that the U.S. and Britain alone must bear. Economically, the war will cost Americans at least $75 billion at a time when the economy is already slumping, and when basic social services are being cut. The war is also costing countless casualties, paid for significantly in American blood.

And all this has bought the U.S. little security. September 11 testifies that the greatest threat to American security in an increasingly globalized world is violent hatred of the U.S. Suicidal antipathy turned commercial planes into the most deadly weapons of mass destruction ever used on American shores. Sadly, we have already witnessed an Iraqi suicide bombing on American troops.

And there may be more suicide attacks to come. By ignoring the world and going unilaterally into Iraq, we have enraged the Muslim world. The potential consequences of this growing resentment are catastrophic. Consider, for example, a December 9 report in the New York Times, which warned that U.S. plans for an attack on Iraq had led to a rapid rise among ultraconservative Saudis, the group that spawned 15 of the 19 September 11 terrorists.

The Bush administration has said that the U.S. will be in Iraq “however long it takes.” And it may take a while. Iraqi resistance has been greater than expected. And the world, which the administration guaranteed would rally behind the U.S. once war began, now seems to be reciprocating the administration’s cold shoulder. And so the administration dives further into a costly war, isolating the U.S. from its allies in the war on terrorism at the very time that terrorism appears most likely. It didn’t have to be this way.

Seth Green is a 2001 graduate from Princeton University, USA, currently a Marshall Scholar studying at the University of Oxford. He is also President of Americans for Informed Democracy.