Princeton University
Academic Publications


The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Princeton University Press (July 2013).

Live Mint and the Wall Street Journal, Gayatri Chandrasekaran, November 22, 2013.

London Review of Books, Owen Bennett-Jones, December 19, 2013.

Foreign Affairs, Lawrence D. Freedman, January/February 2014

Handelsblatt, Pierre Heumann, February 14, 2014.

Terrorism and Political Violence, Francesco Marone, Vol 26: 4 (2014): p 556.


"An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions," With Bryn Rosenfield and Kosuke Imai, November 20, 2014.

"Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq," With Nils B. Weidmann, International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2 (March 2015), pp 247-274.

“Coordination and security: How mobile communications affect insurgency,” With David A. Siegel, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 52, No. 3 (2015), pp 312-322.

“Measuring political violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset,” with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Conflict Management and Peace Science (2014), pp 1-23.

"Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," With Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, and Erin Troland, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 512-517. Longer version as NBER Working Paper 18674.

"Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq," With Benjamin W. Bahney, Radha K. Iyengar, Patrick B. Johnston, Danielle F. Jung, and Howard J. Shatz, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 518-522. Appendix.

"Democratic Values and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from a National Survey of Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Journal of Conflict Resolution (21 March 2013),

“Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan,” With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 4 (Winter 2012), pp 688-720.

"Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science," Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 6, Issues 4-5 (October 2012), pp. 5-20.

"Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?," With Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman, International Security 37 (Summer 2012): 7-40. Online Appendix. Correspondence, "Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq."

"Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 57, No. 1 (January 2013), pp. 30-48.

"Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan," With Will Bullock and Kosuke Imai, Political Analysis 19 (2011): 363-384.

"Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations," With David A. Siegel, World Politics 64 (2012): 39-78. Online Appendix.

"Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," With Luke Condra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, No. 1 (January 2012), 167-187. Appendix.

"Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," With Eli Berman and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Political Economy 119 (August 2011): 766-819.

"Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines," With Eli Berman, Michael Callen and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, 4 (2011): 496-528.

"Islam, Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights from a National Sample," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Terrorism and Political Violence, 22:4 (September 2010): 495-521.

"Tortured Relations: Human Rights Abuses and Counterterrorism Cooperation," With Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Cambridge Journals, PS: Political Science & Politics 43, issue 03 (July 2010): 415-419.

"Understanding support for Islamist Militancy in Pakistan." With C. Christine Fair. International Security 34, No. 3 (Winter 2010): 79-118.

"Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism." With David A. Siegel. Security Studies (2010) 19: 66-98. Mathematical Appendix.

"Fuzzy Set Modeling of Insurgent Networks." With Richard Avila. Military Operations Research (2008) 13, 41-50.

Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations.” With David A. Siegel. In International Studies Quarterly (2007) 51, 405-429. "Mathematical Appendix.

"Color-Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System." With Dara K. Cohen. International Security (2007) 32, 121-154.


“Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraq’s ‘Paper Trail,’ 2005-2010.” West Point, N.Y.:  Combating Terrorism Center, December 15, 2014.  With Danielle F. Jung, Pat Ryan and Jon Wallace.  

"Terrorist Organizations’ Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective." In Terrorist Financing in Comparative Perspective. Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007.

Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa’ida’s Road In and Out of Iraq. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2008. With Brian Fishman et. al.

Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2007. With Clinton Watts et. al.

Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilities. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006. With Joseph Felter, et. al.