JOB MARKET PAPER

"Deterrence and Geographical Externalities in Auto Theft" December 20 2008 [Download PDF]
Knowledge of the extent of crime displacement is crucial for the design and implementation of crime prevention policies. Nevertheless, previous empirical evidence documenting displacement remains inconclusive. This paper is the first to document extensive interstate displacement in auto theft. I propose an intuitive model to analyze the effects in the stolen vehicle market of the introduction of an observable theft deterrence device. I then study the changes in theft risk that were generated by the introduction of Lojack, a highly effective stolen vehicle recovery device, into a number of new Ford car models in some Mexican states, but not others. I find that Lojack-equipped vehicles in Lojack coverage states experienced a 48% reduction in theft risk due to deterrence effects. In states neighboring those where Lojack was introduced, I find that the Lojack program generated an increase in theft risk of 77% in unprotected Ford models. This kind of externality is expected when there is a strong model-specific demand for stolen cars — such as an active stolen autoparts market. In Lojack states, I find a small and non-significant reduction in theft risk of unprotected car models which coincides with the introduction of the Lojack program. The Lojack program introduction coincides with an increase in the number of criminals charged for property theft in Lojack states. I find no displacement to other crime categories in either Lojack or Non Lojack states. Given that most criminal law enforcement is an attribute of state or local governments, the results of this paper suggest that prevention efforts targeting highly mobile crimes — like auto theft — should be coordinated among jurisdictions, rather than independently designed.

The Reliability of Self-Reported Home Values in a Developing Country Context
We analyze the reliability of homeowners’ estimates of the value of their houses, in a household survey of poor suburbs in a developing country. We show that non-response to the home value question by the owner is uncorrelated with the appraised value of the house and other demographic characteristics of the respondent. We also document that homeowners with long tenure largely overestimate the value of their home. Moreover, both the bias and the lack of precision in homeowners’ estimates are correlated with tenure, but not with socioeconomic characteristics. However, we also show that self-reported home values from short-tenure homeowners can be used to obtain unbiased and precise estimates of the average house value at the census tract level.  With Climent Quintana-Domeque. IVIE Working Paper.  
Under review. November 2008 [Download PDF] [Survey Description]
 

Pavement
We randomly allocate street pavement projects in deprived areas of a Mexican city to study neighborhood responses to this type of public infrastructure. We use two rounds of a household survey,  a census of businesses, and a census of constructions to analyze the increase in the value of properties, the extent to which public investment is complementary to private investment, changes in access to public services, and the characteristics of in and outmigrants from the neighborhood. This study is the first to measure the causal impact of public infrastructure in the development process because of its experimental nature. With Climent Quintana-Domeque.

The Formation of Social Capital
Using the experiment described above, we measure the impact of an exogenous infrastructure project on the formation of social capital in the affected households. Using field experiments, we obtain several measures of social capital in the treated and control communities, and we inquire whether there are envy effects in which non-benefitted families cooperate less with benefitted families. The experiment is the first to quantify the impact of public investments on social capital measures. With Climent Quintana-Domeque.

Impact of a Large Rural Land Titling Program
I analyze the impact of a large rural land titling program in Mexico on migration patterns. I find that communities that were titled first had more outmigration than communities that were titled later. This is evidence that lack of land titles inefficiently ties people to the land and inhibits mobility to areas with higher labor productivity.

Testing Purchasing Power Parity with Disaggregated Series
With Francisco Rivadeneyra. Gaceta de Economía. Fall 2004 (Spanish) [Download PDF]

Autocorrelation Tests
With Ignacio Lobato. Gaceta de Economía. Spring 2002 (Spanish) [Download PDF]

Why Fixed Gasoline Prices Negatively Affect Small Communities in Mexico
(Spanish) [Download PDF]