Science, Technology and
Environmental Policy (STEP) Program
Woodrow Wilson School of
Public and International Affairs
Graduate Program
Fall, 2000
Wednesdays,
1:00 – 4:10
Robertson Hall,
Room 13
Tues. 1:30-3:00
258-2498 (phone)
mauzeral@princeton.edu
(e-mail)
Overview: This course presents a
set of basic theories, methods and tools for use in the analysis of policy
issues involving science, technology and the environment. Topics include: order-of-magnitude
estimation; modeling and uncertainty analysis; risk assessment and risk
communication; evaluation of air, land and water pollution and industrial
ecology. The goal of the course is to
develop a theoretical and operational understanding of these techniques through
a combination of lectures, exercises, and the examination of a diverse set of
real-world case studies. Complex
models are becoming commonplace in a diverse range of technical and
non-technical policy areas. This course
will provide a set of tools to evaluate the extent to which these models are
useful and accurately represent the problem under investigation. We will also examine the degree to which
they can obscure the important dynamics of a situation and alternatives for its
solution.
The course will culminate with the in-depth analysis
of a particular real-world environmental problem. Tools learned in the course will be used to analyze the
problem. The student should leave the
course with an increased understanding of how technical information can be used
to inform policy decisions, the problems inherent in using such technical
information, and the confidence to evaluate its relevance and application.
Prerequisites:
Students should be comfortable with mathematics and statistics at the
level of WWS 507. In addition, some
exposure to basic chemistry would be useful. Students should have some familiarity with microcomputer tools,
including spreadsheets and graphical packages.
Familiarity is all that is
required, however. The tools necessary
for policy analysis of the technical issues covered in the course will be taught
as needed in a tutorial fashion.
Course format:
There will be one three-hour meeting per week divided, very roughly,
between a lecture on the weeks topic, a discussion or debate, and a practical
session devoted to instruction in the tools needed to solve the weekly
exercises. A course project will be
conducted with independent term papers written by each student on chosen
sub-topics.
Requirements:
Grades will be based on weekly problem sets (50%), in-class
presentations and discussion (20%), and work on the final class project (30%). The homework assignments will
consist of short, quantitative, sometimes microcomputer based, applications of
course methods to specific case studies.
Weekly problem sets will be due the week after
assigned.
Presentations of class report: Wednesday, January 10 (reading period)
Final paper due:
Wednesday, January 17 (reading
period)
The course will examine air, land, and water
pollution, risk assessment and industrial ecology (the concept by which the
interactions between human activities and the environment are systematically
analyzed). Simple models will be
constructed and analyzed in order to understand the flow and transformation of
materials while risks due to exposure to various pollutants in a variety of
media will be evaluated. The use of
these tools will culminate in a course project where the class will apply the
methods they have learned to research and write a report on a current
environmental problem where they provide a technical analysis to support
specific policy recommendations. The proposed
class project is to utilize the 'Regional Air Pollution INformation and
Simulation' (RAINS) model as a tool for the integrated assessment of
alternative strategies to reduce air pollution in Europe and Asia. The RAINS
model integrates economic activities, chemistry and transport of air
pollutants, emission control policies, emission control costs and environmental
impacts into a package that can be used on a personal computer to evaluate
various control options.
MODELING:
This module introduces a set of widely applicable modeling tools,
starting from “back-of-the-envelope” and order-of –magnitude estimation, and
from there developing steady-state, computer-spreadsheet, and stock and flow
models. Finally, an integrated
assessment model for the evaluation of the impacts and costs of air pollution
control will be utilized. Emphasis will
be placed both on constructing and evaluating models, and on their use and
misuse in the policy process. The use
of models in evaluating stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change will
be discussed. Modeling exercises will
be oriented around environmental problems with background on air, water and
land pollution provided in lectures.
The computer modeling exercises will primarily use
the STELLA II , Crystal Ball , and RAINS software packages that are installed on
the computers in Robertson 14 and 15 and can be purchased.
RISK ASSESSMENT:
Science and technology decision making routinely involves uncertainty
and the evaluation of hazards. This
module introduces a set of risk assessment tools commonly employed in public
health, environmental, military and industrial applications. We will examine probabilistic and exposure
assessment methods. We will also
explore the critical step of risk prioritization and communication, both as a
tool for ‘public interest science’ and as it is utilized to
legitimize/evaluate/inform political decisions.
Required Texts:
Ford, Andrew. Modeling the Environment, An
Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems, Island Press, 1999.
Harte, John. Consider a Spherical Cow: A Course in Environmental Problem Solving,
University Science Books, 1988.
Kammen, D. M., Hassenzahl, D. M. Should We Risk It? Exploring Environmental, Health, and
Technological Problem Solving, Princeton University Press, 1999.
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. Beyond
the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., 1992.
Glickman, T.S., Gough, M. (eds.) Readings in Risk,
Resources for the Future, Baltimore, MD, 1990.
Recommended Texts:
Graedel, T. E., Crutzen, P.J. Atmosphere, Climate and Change, Scientific American Library, New York,
1997.
Gratt, Lawrence B.
Air Toxic Risk Assessment and Management, van Nostrand Reinhold,
1996.
High Performance Systems, STELLA II: Introduction to
Systems Thinking, High Performance Systems, Hanover, NH, 1992.
Schedule
of Classes
Week 1:
Friday September 22.
Introduction and Overview.
Theory:
Course overview. Methods used in
decision-making involving science, technology and the environment. Examples of the use of technical information
and models in making environmental policy decisions (ie. stratospheric ozone
depletion, climate change, etc.).
Practical:
Survey of order-of-magnitude and
“back-of-the-envelope” estimation techniques.
Discussion of possible course projects.
Readings:
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D.L. and Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the limits,
chapters 1 and 2, p. 1-43.
Ford, Andrew (1999)
Modeling the Environment, Chapter 1, Overview, p. 3-13
Harte, J. (1985) Consider a spherical cow: a
course in environmental problem solving, Chapter 1, p. 1-20.
Week 2.
September 27. Modeling I.
Theory:
Box models, steady-state and non- steady-state models, stocks and
flows.
Introduction and application to air pollution.
Practical:
STELLA introduction, tutorial and modeling session.
Readings:
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D.L. and Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the limits,
chapters 3 and 4, p. 44-140.
Harte, J. (1985) Consider a
spherical cow, pp. 21-44, 111 – 116.
Ford, A. (1999), Modeling the Environment, Chapter 2, pp.
14-20; Chapter 3, pp.25-31.
Use as a reference (available in computer clusters
at the WWS):
High Performance Systems (1992), STELLA II: Introduction to Systems Thinking (High
Performance Systems, Hanover, NH, chapters 1-6 (pp. 1 – 102)
Week
3. October 11. Modeling I
Theory:
General approaches and simple dynamics: methods to characterize dynamical
systems, stability and feedback loops.
Complex models are becoming commonplace in a diverse range of technical
and non-technical policy areas. To what
extent are these models useful, and to what degree do they obscure the
important dynamics of the situation?
Practical:
Testing the stability and utility of simple global change forecast
models. Introduction to the World3
model.
Bottom-up and top-down approaches to modeling and
estimating growth. Comparing the
strengths and weaknesses of “top-down” (readings: Meadows, Meadows, and Randers) and “bottom-up” (reading: OTA)
approaches to energy consumption forecasts.
Readings:
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D.L. and Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the limits, chapters 4-7, pp. 104-217; Appendix pp. 237-253.
Week
4. October 4. Air Pollution
Theory:
Air pollution resulting from fossil fuel combustion - aerosols, acid
rain, smog.
Practical:
Modeling applications for air pollution.
Readings:
Graedel, T. E., Crutzen, P.J. (1997) Atmosphere, Climate and Change,
Chapter 3 “Chemistry in the Air”,
pp.34-57.
Chapter 5 “Changing Chemistry”, pp. 89-111
Chapter 6 “Predicting the Near Future”, pp.113-140.
For an excellent more in-depth introduction to
atmospheric chemistry, consult Professor Daniel Jacob’s book, ‘Introduction to
Atmospheric Chemistry’, Princeton University Press, available on-line at
http://www-as.harvard.edu/people/faculty/djj/book/
Examine the IIASA web site for information on the
RAINS models:
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TAP/
Week 5.
October 18. Water Pollution.
Theory:
Introduction to surface and ground-water
contamination.
Practical:
Refinement of course project.
Readings:
Bedient, P. B., Rifai, H. S. , Newell, C. J., Ground
Water Contamination, 1994,
Chapter 1, Introduction
to ground water contamination, pp. 1-10.
Chapter 4, Sources
and types of ground water contamination, pp. 64-90.
Week
6. October 25. Waste Disposal / Landfills / Toxic Waste
Theory:
Waste disposal of municipal, industrial and
hazardous solid wastes.
Toxic disposal.
How safe is safe enough?
Readings:
Scrudata, R. J., Pagano, J. J. Landfill Leachates and Groundwater Contamination in Groundwater Contamination and Control,
Zoller, Uri (ed.), Marcel Dekker, New York, 1994, pp. 169-187.
Week
7. November 8. Risk Assessment I
Theory:
Methods in quantifying risk.
Readings:
Please read the following articles in:
Glickman, T. S., Gough, M. (eds.) Readings in Risk,
Morgan, Granger Probing
the Question of Technology-Induced Risk, p.5-16.
Morgan, Granger, Choosing
and Managing Technology-Induced Risk, p. 17-29.
Fischhoff, B., C. Hope, S. R. Watson, Defining Risk, p. 30-41.
Kammen and Hassenzhal, ch. 1, pp. 3-30.
Pimentel, D. et al. (1993) “Assessment of
environmental and economic impacts of pesticide use”, in The pesticide
question: environment, economics, and
ethics, Pimentel, D. and Lehman, H (eds), pp. 47-84.
Week
8. November 15. Risk Assessment II
Theory:
Estimating exposure, dose and response to toxins.
Practical:
Workshop session #1 for class project.
Readings:
Kammen and Hassenzhal,
chapter 2, Basic Models and Risk Problems pp.31-82,
read chapter 3, if you want a review of statistics
for risk analysis,
chapters 4-8 pp. 122-265.
Week
9. November 22, Risk Assessment III
Theory:
Risk/benefit analysis and cost/benefit analysis
Practical:
Crystal Ball and Monte Carlo laboratory Session
Readings:
Hall, J. V., et al. Valuing the Health Benefits of Clean Air, Science, vol. 255, pp.
812-816, 1992.
Vose, D. Monte Carlo Risk Analysis Modeling, in Fundamentals
of Risk Analysis and Risk Management, Lewis Publishers, 1996.
Please read the following articles in:
Glickman, T. S., Gough, M. (eds.) Readings in Risk,
Kelman, S. Cost-benefit analysis: an ethical critique, pp. 129-137.
Rasmussen, N. C. The application of probabilistic risk
assessment techniques to energy technologies, pp. 195-205
Keeney, R.L., Kulkarni, R. B., Keshavan, N. Assessing
the risk of a LNG terminal, pp. 207-217.
Week
10. November 29, Risk Assessment IV
Theory: Risk
communication and risk policy
Practical:
The case of Alar: from science
to 60 Minutes
Readings:
Please read the following articles in:
Glickman, T. S., Gough, M. (eds.) Readings in Risk,
Plough, A., Krimsky, S. The emergence of risk
communication studies: social and
political context, pp. 223-231.
Sandman, P. M. Getting
to Maybe: Some communications aspects
of siting hazardous waste facilities, pp. 233- 245.
Week
11. December 6, Class Project Workshop
Group initial findings will be distributed and
discussed.
Week
12. December 13, Industrial Ecology
Theory:
Product flows and material management
Readings:
From Industrial
Ecology and Global Change (1994):
Socolow, R. Six perspectives from Industrial Ecology,
pp. 3- 16.
Graedel, T. Industrial ecology: definition and implementation, pp.
23-41.
Thomas, V. , Spiro,
T. Emissions and exposure to
metals: cadmium and lead, pp. 297- 318.
Graedel, T., Horkeby,
I., Norberg-Bohm, V., Prioritizing Impacts in Industrial Ecology, pp. 359-370.
Presentations of class report: Wednesday, January 10 (reading period)
Final paper due:
Wednesday, January 17 (reading
period)