This document describes the replication files for "The Evolution of National and Regional Facots in U.S. Housing Construction," By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, August 2008.

All Calculations are carried out using GAUSS.  (Gauss programs are labeled *.gss and Gauss procedures are labeled *.prc).



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Buliding Permit Data:
All data and data processing files are in the subdirectory ..\Data
 Raw Data Files:
 	(1) Final_mwwedits.xls: an Excel file with the data that was keypunched from the hard copy pages.
	(2) ..\Census\st*.asc:  These are the month-by-month data files from the Bureau of the Census
	                    The data in "c" versions of these files were converted to XLS files using the utility program DATALOAD.EXE, which is documented in the subdirectory.
	                    A batch file (convert.bat) was created using BATGEN.GSS, and this batch file executed the DATALOAD program.	
	(3) Monthly_StateBuildingPermits_NSA.XLS: This file merges the datasets from (1) and (2), using data from (1) for 1969-1987:12 and from (2) 1988:1-2008:1. 
	
	
	

Data Programs:

Initial processing:
(1) DATA1.gss: This program reads in the data from Final_mwwedits.xls and writes *.fmt files for future use.
(2) DATA2.gss: This program reads in the data from ..\Census\ and writes *.fmt files for future use.
(3) DATA3.gss: This program links the data files from DATA1 and DATA2 to produce data from 1969:1 - 2008.1

Seasonal Adjustment:
(1) Data_Rewrite_Total_x12.gss reads data produced in DATA3.gss and writes "totals" is ASCII files for use in X12a.
(2) x12a_bat.bat executes X12a.exe (from Census) for the seasonal adjustment
    x12_total.dta lists the data files
    x12_total.spc contains the options used for x12a
(3) Data_Rewrite_Total_x12_2.gss reads the output from X12 (*.d11 files) and rewrites them as ASCII files
(4) Data_check_rewrite_sa_data.gss - reads data from files produced by Data_Rewrite_Total_x12_2.gss. Plots SA data and actuals. Save monthly SA data as FMT files
(5) data_m_2_q_total_sa.gss - constructs quarterly version of monthly SA data (summing the obs over the months in the quarter)


Other Data Series:
GDP_Real.Q60 contains quarterly real GDP data beginning in 1960. These data are used in Figure 1.
USBP_SA.M60 are the monthly values of total building permits obtained from the Census webpage.  These are used in Figure 1.
FRM30_historics_monthly.xls contains monthly values of mortgage rates on 30 year conventional mortgages. These data are summaries of data in 30-ye_historics.xls (from Freddie Mac) where the values from each week of the month have been averaged.  These data are used in Figure 2 in the paper.


@ ---------------------------------- Analysis, Tables, Figures, etc. ----------------------------------- @
Figure 1: Figure1.gss
Figure 2: Figure2.gss
Figure 3: These figures are constructed in Figure3.gss
Figure 4: Desc_statistics.gss
Figure 5: Desc_statistics.gss
Figure 6: Desc_statistics.gss
Figure 7-9: These are based on the grouping from Table 2
Figure 10-13: The filtering for the DFM-SV model is carried fac_svol_1.gss
              Figures are produced in Figure10.gss and Figures11_12_13.gss

Svol_compare.gss: This program computes version of figures 11 and 12 computed using 2 independent runs of Gibbs sampler.  Plotted are the means from the two different runs to check for differences.  These figures are not in the paper. 


Table 1: Desc_statistics.gss
Table 2: The factor model is estimated using ef_em_1.gss. The 4q differences of the estimated uniquenesses are computed in u_data_forCluster.gss. The cluster analysis is carried out in cluster.gss. Note that regions were renormalized for Table 2.
Table 3: The Restricted split sample model is estimated using ef_em_6.gss. Table is produced in ef_fac_summary_6.gss
Table 4: These results are computed in ef_fac_summary_6.gss
Table 5: The Unrestricted split sample models are computed in ef_em_5a.gss and ef_em_5b.gss (for the two different sample periods). The program ef_fac_summary_5.gss produces some resutls which are used in later programs. The output for Table 5 is produced in Ef_fac_5_6_compare.gss.

