Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 22:40:05 +0100
From: Janet Crawford
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Electoral College Meta
Dear Professor Wang,
Might you throw in a projection that includes the overseas votes? There are something like 4 1/2 million. Might get some figures from http://www.aokerry.com/ It is a Kerry group but might be helpful for you.
Janet Crawford
Ireland
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 14:03:06 -0400 (EDT)
From: Kevin Bailey
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Undecided Voters in Pres. Elections are Different
Are you REALLY unaware that undecideds in presidential elections don't just naturally swing to the incumbent? This "rule of thumb" applies almost exclusively to congressional races. If you look at past Gallup polls prior to election day, you will see that "undecideds" tend to split evenly in presidential elections In fact, during a time of war (FDR in the 1940's) they skewed TOWARD the incumbent. I know this isn't comfortable for you, and that you want Kerry to win really badly, but to assume that Kerry will garner a 3-1 advantage amongst undecideds is just ludicrous -- especially coming from someone of such obvious intelligence otherwise.
Kevin S. Bailey
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 15:44:57 -0500
From: Rene De los Rios
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: ???
I'm sorry to break it to you, but your "analysis" (meta or otherwise) is ridiculous. Kerry 311 electoral votes?????
It doesn't take a Ph.D (heck, it doesn't take a GED!) to know that Kerry is not going to get ANYWHERE close to that number. In fact, looking at all the poll numbers out today, Ocotber, 25, 2004, it appears to me that John Kerry will struggle to get 250 electoral votes.
Oh well, looks like it's back to the ole drawing board for you, Professor!
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 14:49:47 -0400 (EDT)
From: Dave
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: why no update today
Been checking your site everyday for a month Yesterday the polls take a big swing towards Bush and no update? See Zogby for Florida, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Ohio. I will admit I have enjoyed following your site, even though I think last weeks change was pretty funny. Fortunately for us Bush supporters the polls went over 3% in his favor so your 2% boost for Kerry got washed. My prediction over 300 electoral votes for Bush 52% of the vote for Bush and maybe 46% for Kerry. See who is right in 8 days :-).
Thanks for your work.
Dave
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 09:50:38 -0400
From: Richard Reddy
To: Samuel Wang Subject: Re: Thanks! Did you ever notice how a map of the US roughly resembles a voting
card, with a large hanging chad? :-) I was in a playful mood last night
and revised your projection. (attached). Slightly skewed. This includes
a factor for sudden enlightenment on issues of social class. Thanks again for your efforts to deliver an unbiased presentation,
including information left out of other polls (undecided) that is
highly significant. It's a nice contribution to the election even if we
are all biased. As for the other bloody business, I thought Carter put it well. He said
"We will never learn to live in peace by killing each other's children."
(This is the difference between authentic spirtual values, and those
pinned on the sleeve) The key concept is learning. This is the challenge
that awaits us in a new century, and educators like yourself are an
important part of the picture. Regards, Rick Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 08:58:36 -0500
From: Lindsey Lee
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: TelOpinion Research First, I enjoy your site. Interesting to see the analysis. I disagree with your assumption on how the
undecideds will break, but at least you have a rational basis for conclusion. To answer your question on the subject of this email, TelOpinion Research is led by Mark Zeplowitz and
Lance Tarrance. Both primarily are Republican leaning pollsters. Lance used to be director of Research
for the RNC. Lindsey Lee, CPA/ABV, CFA
Senior Manager
HEIN & ASSOCIATES LLP Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 07:11:26 -0700 (PDT)
From: daveramona007@yahoo.com
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Meta Something or Other Dear Professor Wang, Greetings from Flyover Country. How are things in the
Whacko Left Academy? You of all people should know that when one proceeds
from bogus premises, all the quantitative tools in the
world cannot produce correct results. Garbage in,
garbage out. Fruit of the poisonous tree. Choose
your metaphor. I suspect that you are blinded by your ideology. How
else on God's green earth can you think that
undecideds will break three to one for Kerry? Have
you been reading the polls? It's simply not happening
as you claim to see it. More like three to one for
Dubya. Your science tells you that Kerry will win the
electoral count, perhaps even decisively. My gut
tells me that you are woefully wrong. Bush will coast
to victory with at least 370 electoral votes on
November 2nd. He will win Ohio, Florida, and at least
one of Michigan or Pennsylvania. I will e-mail you on November 3rd to gloat and
ridicule your silly, useless methodology. Dave Ramona
Euclid, Ohio Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 10:50:03 +0100
From: Janet Crawford
To: Samuel Wang Subject: Re: Electoral College Meta Dear Sam, It will be a very high turnout this year and excluding some of the
military will be highly Kerry. The AOK people may be able to give you some
percentage figures. Kerry's sister has gone to every country and AOK has
been very active in all countries. The sentiment is high on Kerry because of
the war everywhere else but the US. Also there are a lot of spouses who are
citizens by marriage but German, French and English, and a lot of the
military are now doubting why they are in Iraq. Good luck. Janet Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 20:33:36 -0700
From: Daniel Helsten
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Votepair and IRV Professor Wang,
I appreciate all the work you put into the election site. I've been
watching daily for the last three weeks.
As many people read your site, I thought you might say something about
votepair.org and Instant Runoff Voting (fairvote.org).
Daniel Helsten Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 17:03:26 -0400
From: Thomas R. Jackson
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: what to do with the undecideds Thought you might be interested in this article
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/VoterDecisionTime.htm
It suggests that perhaps the late undecideds might not be following the
usual incumbent rule. With the nation at war, this might not be so
surprising, as there may be a greater than usual reluctance to change
captains midstream. On the other hand, if so then it would be a big break
from past elections, so, like so much about this election, I would take it
with a grain of salt. I am glad you continue to present both calculations. Thanks for making your site available, and all your hard work. Thomas R. Jackson. Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 18:43:53 -0700
From: Joan Van Tassel
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Pat Caddell on Hannity & Colmes Hi, Professor Wang, in an interesting interview on the show, Demo strategist
Pat Caddell argued that there is a misreading the evidence of how undecided
voters split and that the "incumbent rule" is not valid in today's situation. He says
that when you analyze close races in dangerous times, the rule does not apply:
These elections are about safety versus threat. He believes that the history of such campaigns shows that in the week before the
election, undecided voters who have been unable to make up their minds break for
the iincumbent. A couple of days before the election, there is a slight, smaller bump
for the challenger. Based on his reading of the numbers from these kinds of elections over the last
150 years, Cadell believes the Kerry strategy of focusing on the missing explosive
materials is contra-indicated because it raises the level of anxiety about safety, which
will work against Kerry. Hmmmm. I'm going to Nevada to turn out Kerry voters anyway. I have my K/E cap,
T-shirt, and K/E flag for my Prius. There I'll be, buzzing around Las Vegas. ..Maybe place
a $5 bet on K/E just for sentiment. Best ...and enjoy your conference. Joan Van Tassel Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 00:31:51 -0400
From: Valerie Hans
To: sswang@Princeton.EDU
Subject: electoral college website -- thank you Professor Wang, I wanted to thank you for all of your efforts to put
online sound current information about the status of the electoral
college implications of polls for the rest of us very very interested
observers. I passed your website along to the professors teaching a
"road to the presidency" course here at the University of Delaware. Valerie Hans