Opening Remarks for The Human Side of Computing

A 250th Anniversary Alumni College at Princeton University

Robert Stengel

February 20, 1997


Introduction

Welcome to the Alumni College on The Human Side of Computing. I am Robert Stengel, Associate Dean and Professor in Princeton's School of Engineering and Applied Science. I will be your host for the next day-and-a-half, as we explore the interplay between people and those machines that concurrently make life so much easier and more complicated.

Overview

Oh, for the good old days, when life was simple, all sunrises were sparkling and all sunsets were golden, everything was perfect, and, of course, there were no computers. Alas, the genie is out of the bottle -- Computers are here to stay. If computers were inefficient, ugly, fragile, or not useful, they would simply go away -- like vacuum tubes, telegrams, Edsels, and 78 RPM records.

We may question the imperfections of computer displays and keyboards, the bugs in computer software, traffic jams on the Internet, and the computer's annoying inability to read our minds, yet there is little question that computers are doing something right. From the handful of mechanical calculating machines and electronic analyzers that existed at the end of World War II, the number of computers in the United States had grown to 22 million in 1985, about 1 per 10 people. The number will grow to 1 computer per 2 people by the year 2000. In addition, there are countless digital processors embedded in the devices of everyday life.

We have accepted the utility of computers in science and technology for decades:

Nevertheless, it may be unsettling to realize that we are surrounded by ordinary things that would no longer work without computers: our clocks, cars, cameras, disk players, dishwashers, and telephones; traffic lights, air traffic control systems, basketball score boards. One of last week's news magazines had articles on the following, all of which were profoundly affected by computers:

Here are 4 key points:

The fabric of our lives

Directly and indirectly (and barring unwanted cataclysms), our lives have been irreversibly affected by computers. In his recent book, Deeper: My Two-Year Odyssey in Cyberspace, John Seabrook comments, "The computer screen was like a mirror, not a true mirror -- more like a mirror that gave you back a vision of the world looking the way you wished it looked." One may recall that in the original Odyssey, Homer viewed the moon as a "silver shield in the sky," reflecting the land and water below. Concepts and metaphors: The Information Superhighway, "like life-saving medicine," according to Mark Stefik, "the library, the mail system, the marketplace, alternative worlds," all rolled into one. The mythic frontier -- like the Mississippi River or the vacuum of space -- bridging the gap between grand illusion and reality. The New York Times quotes an un-named scientist: "When I get starry-eyed, I think of the Web as an information analog of the medieval cathedrals -- something the whole culture contributes to and participates in." Columnist George Gilder compares silicon microchips to cathedrals: "greatness through sand and glass and air."

Issues of physical security and trust abound in the expanding role of computers in our lives: On hearing that new Internet technology will allow orders for flowers to be processed by unskilled operators, historian Francis Fukayama responded, "Damned if I would give out my credit card number to some high school kid. I don't know much about digital authentication, but I do know something about high school kids, and I wouldn't trust them with taking out the garbage, much less with my valuable financial information." 170 years ago, the military theorist von Clausewitz described the "fog of war," the inability of combatants to get the big picture because they are so close to the action. Interestingly, digital technology could make the "fog of war" a thing of the past, leading one wag to speculate that there will be no World War 3, but we still have to worry about World War 3.1. Forbes ASAP editor, Rich Karlgaard, suggests that the modern equivalent of the "fog of war" is the "Internet blur," our inability to keep up with rapidly changing technology.

Transfer and storage of information

Moore's Law shows no abatement: Computer capabilities double every 18 months and have been doing so for the past 30 years. At the same time, the size and cost of computers have shrunk dramatically. My Macintosh Centris 650 had more speed and memory than all of the IBM 650s ever built, and it cost the equivalent of one day's rental of that 40-year-old machine.

Information-based solutions

The move toward increased reliance on computers is compelling. Computation has become a core element of education, business, government, and leisure activities, as well as science and technology. The vogue in the automobile industry is to solve problems with silicon not steel. This leads to the question: "Can a modern, learned person not know about computers?" We see the answer in computing's impact on K-12 education, on "distance learning," providing degrees on the Internet. While we may be glad that computers allow library researchers to follow the "associative trail" sought by World-War-II-era scientist Vannevar Bush, we may recoil at the notion that archival sources are shifting from paper to electronic media.

Significant percentage of our gross domestic product

Computers no longer merely support big business: they are big business. Three of the Top 24 corporations (by revenues) are computer companies (IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola). Three of the 9 companies with highest stock market capitalization are computer companies (Intel, Microsoft, IBM). The health of the computer industry is a significant economic factor. Software production growth rate is about 13%/yr in the US, while worldwide growth in computers is about 18%/yr. Still, we are a net importer of ADP equipment: $63B import vs. $36B export. Telecommuting and telemarketing are enabled by these technologies, revealing a new set of challenges to business organizations. The computer and telecommunications industries are revising the priority of human ingenuity, knowledge, and analytical skills, reducing the value of muscle power, increasing the worth of brain power. What is the operative rule? Economist Lester Thurow tells us, "Those with third-world skills will earn third-world wages." Demand for skilled workers has soared -- and so have their wages, according to economist Paul Krugman. Is Technological Push or Consumer Pull leading to income inequality?

Our speakers' topics

All in all, there is much for our speakers to cover. I have not seen the texts of our speakers' talks, so I am as anxious as you are to hear them speak. Here are some questions for us to ponder: Should we treat computers like people? Does the integrative capability of multimedia destroy intellectuality? Do computers provide enabling technology for attaining worthwhile goals? Does technology create the dreams or the reverse? How does computer technology affect our concepts of art, music, and literature? Have the skills required to be an artist or to appreciate art changed? Have computers caused productivity to increase or decrease? Has the definition of productivity changed? How can we best use computers in education? Can we ever overcome Internet blur?

The Human Side of Computing.
last updated February 28, 1997, stengel@princeton.edu
Copyright (c) 1997 by Robert F. Stengel. All rights reserved.