Unemployment rate (Jan to Oct avg)
RGDP growth rate (Q1-Q3 avg post-1948, annual pre-1948), Bordo's data pre-1930
RGDP growth rate (Q3 annualized rate post-1948, annual pre-1948), Bordo's data
RGDP growth rate (Q1-Q3)
RGDP growth rate (Q3 annualized rate post-1948, annual pre-1948), Hank's data
Annual change in CPI-U index
October change in CPI-U index post-1948, annual rate pre-1948
1 if Dem in white house
1 if Rep incumbent running
1 if Dem incumbent running
1 if Dem wins (the electoral vote)
Dem popular vote share
Rep popular vote share
third-party vote share
Democrat share of major party vote
Incumbent party vote share
Obs Incumbent share of MP
incumbent party running
incumbent party incumbent running
Pred Incumbent Share of MP
Actual Republican Share
Predicted Republican Share