CIV 360/548: Risk Assessment and Management
Prof. Erik VanMarcke
Prepare a short (2 pages maximum) proposal/outline for your
final paper for the course. Projects may be done singly or in teams
of two. Further guidance will be provided in class next Monday.
FINAL PAPER -- GENERAL GUIDELINES
Formulate, analyze, and illustrate a decision situation involving risk, preferably relating to one or more of these applications: finance, natural or man-made hazards, the environment, energy or civil infrastructure.
-- Describe or propose a specific decision situation in which you see a way of quantifying probabilities and consequences (i.e., do risk assessment) for different "actions" or "strategies", one being the "reference action" ("do nothing", "status quo", "business as usual"). Then illustrate the use of a methodology of risk management to arrive at the "best action". The decision considered may be "terminal" (design, regulation, operating rule, strategy) or "pre-terminal" (search, inspection, data acquisition) or both.
The final paper should have these two parts:
1. -- Describe the "system" and the decision situation involved; identify and evaluate the hazards to which the system is subjected; propose a methodology of risk assessment for the "reference action" (using such methods as: event tree, fault tree, system reliability; "L and R" format, real-world or lab "experiments", computer simulation; subjective probability assessment; random processes or fields); and identify and employ sources of data to evaluate risks and consequences.
2. -- Do a quantitative "example" risk assessment for the "reference action" and then illustrate risk management, seeking to answer such questions as: "Which other action is preferable to the "reference alternative"? Which action is "best" for (chosen or prescribed) decision criteria and/or constraints?
DUE DATE: MONDAY, MAY 11, NOON -- CIV360/548 "IN BOX" (Student Lounge)