Philosophical Foundations of Probability and Decision Theory (PHI 371), Fall 2025

Dawid, P., & Gillies, D. (1989). A Bayesian Analysis of Hume’s Argument Concerning Miracles. The Philosophical Quarterly, 39(154), 57–65. https://doi.org/10.2307/2220350

Optional resources that may be of use for those who are relatively new to (or brushing up on) probability theory:

Weisberg, J. (2021). Odds & Ends. https://jonathanweisberg.org/vip/
Chapters 5-8. (Covers the basics of probability in a very accessible and visual way.)

Jeffrey, R. (Ed.). (2004). Probability Primer. In Subjective Probability: The Real Thing (pp. 1–28). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511816161.002
Sections 1.1, 1.2 (skip examples 2 and 3), 1.4, 1.6 - 1.7 (Covers the basics and a few additional topics; written in plain language but proceeds at a brisk pace.)

3Blue1Brown videos: Bayes’ theorem, The medical test paradox: Can redesigning Bayes rule help?

Kagan, S. (2011). Do I make a difference? Philosophy & Public Affairs, 39(2), 105–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1088-4963.2011.01203.x
Read sections I–VI, XI–XII.

Jackson, F. (1987). Group Morality. In J. J. C. Smart, P. Pettit, R. Sylvan, & J. Norman (Eds.), Metaphysics and Morality: Essays in Honour of J.J.C. Smart (pp. 91–110). Blackwell. [Access on the course Canvas page, under Files > Readings]
Read from the beginning through and including the section “The difference principle” (pp. 91–103)

Kagan, S. (2011). Do I make a difference? Philosophy & Public Affairs, 39(2), 105–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1088-4963.2011.01203.x
Read sections VII–X.

Budolfson, M. B. (2019). The inefficacy objection to consequentialism and the problem with the expected consequences response. Philosophical Studies, 176(7), 1711–1724. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-018-1087-6
Read pp. 1711–1718.

Optional resource that may be of use for those who are relatively new to (or brushing up on) expected utility theory:

Weisberg, J. (2021). Odds & Ends. https://jonathanweisberg.org/vip/
Read chapter 11 and chapter 12 (except you may omit sections 12.1–12.4).

Norcross, A. (1998). Great Harms From Small Benefits Grow: How Death Can Be Outweighed by Headaches. Analysis, 58(2), 152–158. https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/58.2.152

Norcross, A. (1997). Trading lives for convenience: It’s not just for consequentialists. Southwest Philosophy Review, 13(1), 29–37. https://doi.org/10.5840/swphilreview19971313

Writing assignment #1 prompts will be distributed.

No new required readings. Bring a laptop and your ideas and work you have done so far on writing assignment #1.

Papineau, D. (2021). The disvalue of knowledge. Synthese, 198(6), 5311–5332. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-019-02405-4
Read sections 4-8.

Optional:

Thomson, J. J. (1986). Liability and Individualized Evidence. Law and Contemporary Problems, 49(3), 199–219. https://doi.org/10.2307/1191633
Read sections I and V.

Writing assignment #2 prompts will be distributed.

Greaves, H., & MacAskill, W. (2025). The Case for Strong Longtermism. In H. Greaves, J. Barrett, & D. Thorstad (Eds.), Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/9780191979972.003.0003 [In case of problems with doi link, from Princeton use this link.]
Read sections 1 - 4.3.

Curran, E. (2025). Longtermism and aggregation. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 110(3), 1137–1151. https://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.70007
Read sections 1-3.

Bostrom, N. (2009). Pascal’s mugging. Analysis, 69(3), 443–445. https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/anp062

Beckstead, N., & Thomas, T. (2023). A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values. Noûs. https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12462
Read from the beginning through and including section 1.

Temkin, L. S. (2022). How Expected Utility Theory Can Drive Us Off the Rails. In L. S. Temkin (Ed.), Being Good in a World of Need. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192849977.001.0001

Lenman, J. (2000). Consequentialism and Cluelessness. Philosophy and Public Affairs, 29(4), 342–370. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1088-4963.2000.00342.x
Read sections I, II, and from the beginning of section IV through “…the significance of the reason it offers Richard is proportionately diminished.” (near the top of p. 358).

Mogensen, A., & MacAskill, W. (2021). The Paralysis Argument. Philosophers’ Imprint, 21(15). http://hdl.handle.net/2027/spo.3521354.0021.015
Read from the beginning through and including the last complete paragraph on p. 3.

White, R. (2000). Fine-Tuning and Multiple Universes. Noûs, 34(2), 260–276. https://doi.org/10.1111/0029-4624.00210
Read sections I, II, VI.

Roberts, J. T. (2012). Fine-Tuning and the Infrared Bull’s-Eye. Philosophical Studies, 160(2), 287–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-011-9719-0
Read sections 1, 3.

Dogramaci, S., & Schoenfield, M. (2025). Why I Am Not a Boltzmann Brain. Philosophical Review, 134(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1215/00318108-11591068
Read sections 1–2.

Bostrom, N. (2003, May 16). The Simulation Argument: Why the Probability that You Are Living in a Matrix is Quite High. Times Higher Education Supplement. https://simulation-argument.com/matrix/

Optional background:

Bostrom, N. (2003). Are We Living in a Computer Simulation? Philosophical Quarterly, 53, 243–255. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9213.00309

I aim to reply to emails by the next one or two business days, but often office hours are a better forum for discussion, especially of substantive issues.

The final grade will be based on the two examinations and the two writing assignments. These four components will be weighted equally. The university’s standards for letter grades can be found in the Undergraduate Announcement here.

Less than 24 hours late: no penalty. After that, the penalty is 1 “grade notch” (for example: A to A-) per additional 24 hours late. For example, a paper that is handed in 24.5 hours after the deadline is penalized by one grade notch. Even though there is no formal penalty for the first 24 hours late, please act in good faith and get your paper in by the deadline.

If you need to miss a class, please email me in advance. If you miss a class, it is your responsibility to find out from another student what happened and to get copies of notes and handouts. After doing that, if you have questions about what was covered, please prepare your questions and contact me (perhaps by stopping by an office hour) to discuss them. Note that according to the University policy on missing class, “More than two weeks of cumulative absences, regardless of the reason a student misses class, may represent grounds for a failing grade in a course.”

On each written examination, test, or quiz administered in class, please write out and sign the following statement: “I pledge my honor that I have not violated the Honor Code during this examination.” At the end of any written work completed outside of class for a grade, please type or write out and sign the following statement: “This paper represents my own work in accordance with University regulations.” For electronic submissions, you may type your name preceded by the notation s, which stands for “signature.”

All work submitted in this course must be your own, completed in accordance with the University’s academic regulations. You may not make use of ChatGPT or other AI composition software.

This is a small seminar—much of its value will be in the face-to-face interactions between and among all of us. So I ask that you not use laptops, phones, and tablets during class, and that you keep them out of sight inside bags during class. Students with disabilities may request, as a disability accommodation, permission to use electronics during class (see below).

Students must register with the Office of Disability Services (ods@princeton.edu; 258-8840) for disability verification and determination of eligibility for reasonable academic accommodations. Requests for academic accommodations for this course should be made at the beginning of the semester or as soon as possible for newly approved students. I encourage students with approved accommodations to contact me at the beginning of the semester and again before major course assessments. Please note that no accommodations for a disability will be made without authorization from ODS or without advance notice.

The work you do for this course may be anonymously used for the benefit of other students. If you would prefer that your work not be used in this way, please email the course instructors at any time in the semester. No explanation is required: an email with the subject line “I opt out of future use of work I do for this class” is sufficient. Students who opt out will not be penalized in any way. Also, if you are generally OK with such use but there is a particular assignment you’d prefer to be kept private, feel free to include a note saying so at the top of that assignment.

Two hours and fifty minutes is a long time. Standing up, stretching, pacing, and eating snacks (if you clean up after yourself) is permitted and indeed encouraged during both regular class time and during any breaks.