Professor, Department of Philosophy. Areas of interest include decision and game theory, epistemology, philosophy of probability, philosophy of mind, and philosophy of science. CV.

Preprints

• People make suboptimal decisions about existential risks. Under review. With Jian-Qiao Zhu and Thomas L. Griffiths.

Publications

• Boltzmann brains and cognitive instability. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research. (Online Early View)
• Against the no-difference argument. Analysis 84(3), 2024.
• Confession of a causal decision theorist. Analysis 82(2): 203-213, 2022.
• Fragmentation and logical omniscience. Noûs 56(3), 2022. With Agustín Rayo.
• Fragmentation and information access. In The Fragmented Mind, Cristina Borgoni, Dirk Kindermann, and Andrea Onofri, eds. Oxford University Press, 2021. With Agustín Rayo.
• Why We Don’t Have Enough Backup Ventilators. Route Fifty, April 10, 2020. With Daniel Oppenheimer
• Newcomb University: A Play in One Act. Analysis 80(2): 212–221, 2020.
• The Policy Consequences of Cascade Blindness. Behavioural Public Policy, 1-22, 2018. With Daniel Oppenheimer.
• Improving students’ understanding and analytical reasoning: A quasi-experimental field study of argument visualization with first-year undergraduates. Nature Partner Journals: Science of Learning 3(21), 2018. With Simon Cullen, Eva van der Brugge, and Judith Fan.
• Bayesian humility. Philosophy of Science 83 (July): 305-323, 2016.
• The puzzle of the unmarked clock and the new rational reflection principle. Philosophical Studies 164(1): 127-139, 2013.
• Subjective Probabilities Should be Sharp. Philosophers' Imprint, 10(5), 2010. Reprinted in The Philosopher's Annual 30, Patrick Grim, Billy Dunaway, J. Dmitri Gallow, Alex Silk, eds, 2011. Errata.
• How to disagree about how to disagree Disagreement. Richard Feldman and Ted Warfield, eds. Oxford University Press, 2010.
• Reflection and Disagreement. Noûs, 41(3): 478-502, 2007. Reprinted in The Philosopher's Annual 27, Patrick Grim, Ian Flora and Alex Plakias, eds, 2007, and Social Epistemology: An Anthology, Dennis Whitcomb and Alvin Goldman, eds, Oxford University Press, 2011.
• Isolation and folk physics. Causation, Physics, and the Constitution of Reality: Russell's Republic Revisited. Huw Price and Richard Corry, eds. Oxford University Press, 2007.
• I Can't Believe I'm Stupid. Philosophical Perspectives 19(1): 77-93, 2005. With Andy Egan.
  
• On overrating oneself... and knowing it. Philosophical Studies, 123: 115-124, 2005.
  
• Bayesianism, Infinite Decisions, and Binding. Mind 113: 251-283, 2004. With Frank Arntzenius and John Hawthorne.
  
• Infinitesimal chances and the laws of nature. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 82(1):67-76, 2004. Reprinted in Lewisian Themes, Frank Jackson and Graham Priest, eds. Oxford University Press, 2008.
• Defeating Dr. Evil with self-locating belief. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 69(2), 2004.
  
• Statistical Mechanics and the Asymmetry of Counterfactual Dependence. Philosophy of Science (suppl. vol. 68, PSA 2000): S313-S324, 2001.
• "Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem." Analysis 60(2), 2000. Reprinted in Arguing About Knowledge, Duncan Pritchard, Ram Neta, eds. Routledge, 2010, and Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, Antony Eagle, ed. Routledge, 2011.
• A coupled attractor model of the rodent head direction system (with A. David Redish and David S. Touretzky) Network 7, 1996.

• Lucky to be rational. Unpublished paper presented at the Bellingham Summer Philosophy Conference on June 6, 2008.

Teaching

Academic year 2024-2025: On research leave of absence.

Fall 2025:

• Decision Theory: Self-locating Belief, Anthropic Reasoning, and Skepticism (PHI 533, Fall 2025). Registrar listing
• Philosophical foundations of probability and decision theory (PHI 371, Fall 2025). Registrar listing

Past courses at Princeton:
(To peek at these courses, follow a link below. If a login page appears, click "preview".)

• Problems of Philosophy: Decision theory (PHI 533, Spring 2024). Taught jointly with Lara Buchak.
• Longtermism, existential risk, and the future of humanity (PHI 356, Fall 2023). Taught jointly with Calvin Baker.
• Philosophical foundations of probability and decision theory: Bayesian tools for philosophy (PHI 371, Spring 2023). Taught jointly with Pietro Cibinel.
• Epistemology of belief polarization (Spring 2023). Princeton/Rutgers graduate seminar taught jointly with Andy Egan.
• Dissertation Seminar (PHI 599, Spring 2021)
• Free will and the problem of evil (Freshman Seminar) (FRS 114, Spring 2020)
• First Year Philosophy Graduate Seminar (PHI 550, Fall 2019)
• Junior Seminar in Epistemology (Fall 2019)
• Philosophical foundations of probability and decision theory (PHI 371, Spring 2019). Taught jointly with Alexander Meehan.
• Metaphysics: Chance and Causation (PHI 540, Fall 2018). Taught jointly with Boris Kment
• First Year Philosophy Graduate Seminar (PHI 550, Fall 2018)
• Theory of Knowledge (PHI 313, Fall 2017)
• Theory of Knowledge : Knowledge and Rationality (PHI 539, Fall 2017). Taught jointly with Tom Kelly
• Philosophical Analysis Using Argument Maps (FRS 187, Fall 2015)
• Philosophical Analysis Using Argument Maps (FRS 104, Spring 2016)
  
• Philosophy of Mind: Representation and Fragmentation (PHI 535, Spring 2016). Taught jointly with Andy Egan and in parallel with Agustín Rayo
• Decision theory (PHI 533, Spring 2014)
• Philosophy of Randomness and Extreme Risk (PHI 374 / CHV 374, Fall 2013). Taught jointly with Daniel Cloud. [Syllabus]
• Philosophical Analysis Using Argument Maps (FRS 105, Fall 2013)
• Philosophy of physics (PHI 327, Fall 2012). Taught jointly with Hans Halvorson.
• Theory of Knowledge (PHI 313, Spring 2012).
• Philosophy of Randomness and Extreme Risk (PHI 374, Fall 2011) Taught jointly with Daniel Cloud
• Philosophy of Mind: Representation and Fragmentation (PHI 535, Fall 2011) Taught in parallel with with Agustín Rayo
• Dissertation Seminar (PHI 599, Fall 2010)
• First-year graduate Seminar (PHI 599, Fall 2010) Taught jointly with Boris Kment
• Dissertation Seminar (PHI 599, Spring 2010)
• Philosophy of Randomness and Extreme Risk (PHI 374 Spring 2010) Taught jointly with Daniel Cloud
• The neural basis of free will and consciousness (FRS 104, Spring 2009) Taught jointly with Michael Berry
• Philosophy of Science: time, entropy, and the manifest image (PHI 531, Fall 2008)
• Decision theory: Bayesian perspectives on expressivism, fragmentation, and disagreement (PHI 533, Spring 2008)
• Introductory Logic (PHI 201, Spring 2008)
• Perfecting Life: Designing Children, Designing Memories, Designing Death (CHV 308 / PHI 308, Fall 2007) Taught jointly with Elizabeth Harman.
• Metaphysics for Ethics (First-year graduate seminar, Fall 2007)
• Philosophy of Science (PHI 321, Spring 2007)
• Metaphysics for Ethics (First-year graduate seminar, Fall 2006)
• Philosophy of Religion (PHI 325, Fall 2006)
• Computation and Mind (PHI513: Topics in Recent and Contemporary Philosophy)
• Philosophy of Science: Space, Evolution, Games, and Reduction (PHI321, Spring 2005)
• Religious conviction, religious disagreement (FRS101; sponsored by the Center for the study of religion)
• Problems of Philosophy: Folk Psychology, Decision Theory and Moral Philosophy (PHI523/POL587; jointly taught with Philip Pettit)
• Philosophy of Religion: God, Bioethics, and Theological Deadlocks (PHI 325, Fall 2003)
• Problems of Philosophy: Laws, Chance, and Constitution (PHI 523, Fall 2003)
• Philosophy of the Cognitive Sciences: Foundations of classical, quantum, and biological computation (PHI 322, Spring 2003)
• Decision Theory (PHI 533, Fall 2002; jointly taught with Bas van Fraassen)
• Time, temporal parts, and relativity (Junior Seminar, Fall 2002)
• Physics for Metaphysics (PHI 514, Spring 2002; jointly taught with Hans Halvorson)
• Philosophy of Science (PHI 321, Fall 2001)
• Should you believe what will make you happy? (Junior Seminar, Fall 2001)

• Big number duel (with Agustín Rayo). Poster. Description. MIT newspaper writeup.
• Why Neo was too confident that he had escaped the Matrix (PDF handout)
• Time Travel: Philosophy and Physics,
• Introduction to Non-Wimpy Number Systems,
• Is There a God? (Jointly taught with Roger White)
• Algorithmic Information Theory: The Basics (handout)

Advising

• Grad student unit guide (grad students: please read this before asking me to work with you on a unit paper or exam)
• Undergraduate independent work guide (undergraduates: please read this before asking me to work with you on a JP or senior thesis)
• Advice to philosophy graduate students on giving talks (Handout for Dissertation Seminar presentation)