Working Papers

Older Papers:

  1. Confidence Sets in Regressions with Highly Serially Correlated Regressors(with James H. Stock), Revised December 1996. Download Paper.
  2. Empirical Bayes Regression With Many Regressors (with Thomas Knox and James H. Stock), Revised January 2004. Download Paper(pdf),Download Appendix (Theorem Proofs and Data Description) (.pdf).
  3. Optimal Tests for Reduced Rank Time Variation in Regression Coefficients and Level Variation in the Multivariate Local Level Model (with Piotr Eliasz and James H. Stock), Revised October 2004. Download Paper .
  4. Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis (with James H. Stock), Revised June 2005, Download Paper (.pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip).
  5. Measuring Changes in the Value of the Numeraire (with Ricardo Reis), May 2007. Download Paper (.pdf).


Newer Papers:

  1. Presidents and the Economy: An Econometric Investigation (with Alan Blinder), Revised July 2015, (forthcoming American Economic Review ). Download Paper (.pdf). Download Appendix (.pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip). .
  2. Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions (with Ulrich Müller), September 2015, (forthcoming Review of Economic Studies ) Download Paper (.pdf). Download Supplementary Appendix (.pdf). Replication Files (.zip). .
  3. Low-Frequency Econometrics (with Ulrich Müller), September 2015. Download Paper (.pdf). Replication Files (.zip). .
  4. Core Inflation and Trend Inflation (with James Stock), November 2015, (forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics ). Download Paper (.pdf). Download Appendix (.pdf). Replication Files (.zip). .
  5. Factor Models and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics (with James Stock), March 2016, Download Paper (.pdf). Download Data Appendix (.pdf). Replication Files (.zip). .
  6. Long-Run Covariability (with Ulrich Müller), August, 2016. Download Paper (.pdf).