Working Papers

Older Papers:

  1. Confidence Sets in Regressions with Highly Serially Correlated Regressors(with James H. Stock), Revised December 1996. Download Paper.
  2. Empirical Bayes Regression With Many Regressors (with Thomas Knox and James H. Stock), Revised January 2004. Download Paper (Text+Tables) (.pdf),  Download Appendix (Theorem Proofs and Data Description) (.pdf).
  3. Optimal Tests for Reduced Rank Time Variation in Regression Coefficients and Level Variation in the Multivariate Local Level Model (with Piotr Eliasz and James H. Stock), Revised October 2004. Download Paper .
  4. Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis (with James H. Stock), Revised June 2005, Download Paper (.pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip).
  5. Measuring Changes in the Value of the Numeraire (with Ricardo Reis), May 2007. Download Paper (.pdf).

 

Newer Papers:

  1. Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Under the Null Hypothesis (with Graham Elliott and Ulrich Müller)  Revised July 2013. Download Paper (.pdf). .
  2. Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions (with Ulrich Müller), August 2013. Download Paper (.pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip). .
  3. Presidents and the Economy: A Forensic Investigation (with Alan Blinder), November 2013. Download Paper (.pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip). .
  4. Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession, January 2014. Download Paper (,pdf).Download Online Appendix (,pdf). Download Data and Replication Files (.zip). .