Working Papers

Older Papers:

  1. Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988 (with James H. Stock), NBER WP 3376 1990.
  2. Confidence Sets in Regressions with Highly Serially Correlated Regressors (with James H. Stock), Revised December 1996.
  3. Empirical Bayes Regression With Many Regressors (with Thomas Knox and James H. Stock), Revised January 2004.
  4. Optimal Tests for Reduced Rank Time Variation in Regression Coefficients and Level Variation in the Multivariate Local Level Model (with Piotr Eliasz and James H. Stock), Revised October 2004.
  5. Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis (with James H. Stock), Revised June 2005.
  6. Measuring Changes in the Value of the Numeraire (with Ricardo Reis), May 2007.

Newer Papers:

  1. Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation (with James Stock), revised June 2019.
  2. Inference in SVARs Identified with External Instruments (with Jose L. Montiel Olea and James Stock), November 2018.
  3. Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area (with James Stock), January 2019.
  4. Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends (with Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, and Pierre-Daniel Sarte), May 2019.
  5. Low-Frequency Analysis of Economic Time Series (with Ulrich Müller ), October 2019, Draft Chapter for the Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 7, edited by S. Durlauf, L.P. Hansen, J.J. Heckman, and R. Matzkin.


  1. Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound" by D. Debortoli, J. Gali, and L. Gambetti, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2019, forthcoming. (Note: The comment focuses on sign-restricted SVARs.) Download comment (.pdf).